CVCO
Cavco Industries, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Residential Construction Investor Relations →
Cavco Industries, Inc. (CVCO) closed at $538.73 as of 2026-02-02, trading 45.8% above its 200-week moving average of $369.40. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 33.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 51, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1131 weeks of data, CVCO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CVCO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.7%.
With a market cap of $4.2 billion, CVCO is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 17.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.5% over the past three years. CVCO passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 21.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CVCO would have grown to $2728, compared to $903 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.4% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming CVCO as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: CVCO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CVCO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying CVCO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.0% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +5.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +44.9% vs +25.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CVCO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CVCO has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +21.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2007 | Mar 2008 | 12 | 11.8% | -6.8% | +1817.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 5 | 7.1% | -22.3% | +1513.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 2 | 3.1% | -6.0% | +1467.9% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 50 | 45.4% | -0.9% | +1522.7% |
| Sep 2009 | Nov 2009 | 7 | 10.9% | +7.3% | +1537.5% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2009 | 1 | 4.1% | +34.2% | +1560.2% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.5% | +14.8% | +1516.4% |
| Sep 2010 | Sep 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | +14.4% | +1569.4% |
| Oct 2010 | Nov 2010 | 3 | 3.9% | +15.3% | +1564.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 5 | 14.1% | +49.6% | +1615.2% |
| Mar 2019 | May 2019 | 11 | 10.7% | +71.6% | +332.5% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 10 | 29.3% | +53.1% | +268.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 6.8% | +46.0% | +186.9% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | +34.2% | +167.3% |
| Average | 8 | — | +21.7% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02