CTVA
Corteva, Inc. Basic Materials - Agricultural Inputs Investor Relations →
Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) closed at $78.59 as of 2026-06-19, trading 30.4% above its 200-week moving average of $60.28. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 26.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 321 weeks of data, CTVA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 2 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CTVA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.3%.
With a market cap of $52.6 billion, CTVA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.9%. Return on equity stands at 5.1%. The stock trades at 2.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 6.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CTVA would have grown to $332, compared to $280 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.2% vs 17.9% for the index — confirming CTVA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 119.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CTVA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CTVA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying CTVA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +51.7% after 12 months (median +55.0%), compared to +35.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.0% vs +40.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CTVA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CTVA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CTVA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.76 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $80.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $92.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $110.10 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $135.15 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CTVA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CTVA has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 16.1% | +94.6% | +232.0% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 4.0% | +72.8% | +224.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 6.4% | +79.3% | +232.4% |
| Nov 2023 | Nov 2023 | 1 | 5.5% | +35.6% | +85.9% |
| Nov 2023 | Dec 2023 | 2 | 2.5% | +36.4% | +75.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Jan 2024 | 3 | 2.9% | +25.2% | +75.0% |
| Average | 2 | — | +57.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTVA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Corteva, Inc. (CTVA) is currently 30.4% above its 200-week moving average of $60.28. It would need to fall to $60.28 to cross below the line.
What is CTVA's 200-week moving average price?
Corteva, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $60.28 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CTVA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CTVA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 2 weeks on average.
Is CTVA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CTVA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 4.9%. Return on equity is 5.1%. Price-to-book is 2.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CTVA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.2 years, $100 invested in CTVA would have grown to $332, compared to $280 for the S&P 500. That's 21.2% annualized vs 17.9% for the index. CTVA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CTVA pay a dividend?
Yes. Corteva, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 94.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19