CTRA
Coterra Energy Inc. Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) closed at $32.56 as of 2026-05-08, trading 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $24.89. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 42.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.42 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1843 weeks of data, CTRA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CTRA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +3.3%.
With a market cap of $24.7 billion, CTRA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 11.4%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CTRA would have grown to $3522, compared to $3129 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming CTRA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CTRA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CTRA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying CTRA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.3% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +15.6% vs +32.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CTRA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CTRA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CTRA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $25.08 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $27.32 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $29.99 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $33.25 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $37.30 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CTRA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CTRA has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +3.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1991 | Apr 1991 | 12 | 15.3% | -15.8% | +4320.6% |
| Apr 1991 | Apr 1991 | 1 | 1.3% | -20.4% | +3857.3% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 1 | 1.9% | -11.7% | +3878.8% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 8.8% | -17.5% | +4112.9% |
| Oct 1991 | Jul 1992 | 41 | 31.7% | +15.4% | +3806.9% |
| Nov 1994 | Nov 1996 | 107 | 29.1% | -20.6% | +3376.4% |
| Dec 1996 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 2.7% | +11.0% | +3337.3% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 3.2% | +10.4% | +3362.2% |
| Feb 1997 | May 1997 | 12 | 9.4% | +16.8% | +3312.6% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 2.1% | -8.3% | +3464.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 11 | 20.3% | +14.4% | +3547.2% |
| Nov 1998 | Apr 1999 | 22 | 35.0% | -1.8% | +3543.9% |
| Sep 1999 | Apr 2000 | 29 | 22.5% | +15.1% | +3420.3% |
| Jul 2000 | Aug 2000 | 2 | 0.6% | +41.2% | +3160.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | +9.2% | +2875.0% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 5.1% | +24.9% | +2925.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 2.5% | +36.1% | +2769.1% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 34 | 36.2% | +18.5% | +534.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 10.6% | +14.9% | +476.1% |
| Apr 2010 | Dec 2010 | 34 | 26.6% | +56.3% | +406.2% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 2 | 1.5% | -21.5% | +70.7% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2017 | 119 | 46.8% | -7.7% | +70.5% |
| Jan 2018 | Oct 2018 | 39 | 11.4% | +0.6% | +76.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 5.6% | -29.8% | +89.6% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 0.1% | -37.6% | +84.1% |
| Jun 2019 | Jul 2019 | 1 | 2.0% | -26.2% | +91.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Sep 2021 | 114 | 38.3% | -17.8% | +96.8% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 1.0% | +44.0% | +44.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Nov 2025 | 15 | 6.0% | N/A | +41.3% |
| Average | 21 | — | +3.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTRA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Coterra Energy Inc. (CTRA) is currently 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $24.89. It would need to fall to $24.89 to cross below the line.
What is CTRA's 200-week moving average price?
Coterra Energy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $24.89 as of 2026-05-08. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CTRA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CTRA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +3.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is CTRA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CTRA as of 2026-05-08: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Return on equity is 11.4%. Price-to-book is 1.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CTRA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in CTRA would have grown to $3522, compared to $3129 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. CTRA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CTRA pay a dividend?
Yes. Coterra Energy Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 2.70%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-08