CTO
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) closed at $21.97 as of 2026-07-31, trading 40.5% above its 200-week moving average of $15.64. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 41.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, CTO is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.23 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, CTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CTO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.1%.
With a market cap of $824 million, CTO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.4%. Return on equity stands at 8.5%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 41.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CTO would have grown to $1530, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. CTO has returned 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CTO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CTO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying CTO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +22.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.2% vs +35.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CTO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CTO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CTO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $17.82 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $18.64 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $19.53 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $20.51 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $21.60 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CTO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CTO has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +9.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 5 | 6.0% | -7.5% | +2901.2% |
| May 1981 | Apr 1983 | 99 | 22.5% | -12.5% | +2740.4% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 3 | 4.5% | -44.5% | +982.1% |
| Jan 1990 | Jun 1992 | 127 | 54.1% | -26.6% | +1073.9% |
| Jul 1992 | Apr 1993 | 40 | 17.5% | +0.4% | +1192.6% |
| Jul 1994 | Jul 1994 | 1 | 0.3% | +15.6% | +1336.4% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 4 | 2.1% | +37.0% | +1342.0% |
| Nov 1994 | Mar 1995 | 18 | 6.4% | +28.4% | +1327.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1999 | 51 | 26.3% | +8.3% | +912.7% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2001 | 75 | 27.4% | -13.1% | +905.2% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +46.5% | +944.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2012 | 245 | 61.9% | -32.3% | +146.4% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 1.6% | +21.4% | +356.8% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 2.4% | +21.6% | +360.2% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.3% | +17.5% | +150.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 44 | 37.6% | +46.2% | +167.0% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.2% | +47.9% | +142.9% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 2.8% | N/A | +52.8% |
| Average | 40 | — | +9.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTO below its 200-week moving average?
No. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) is currently 40.5% above its 200-week moving average of $15.64. It would need to fall to $15.64 to cross below the line.
What is CTO's 200-week moving average price?
CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.64 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CTO drops below its 200-week moving average?
CTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is CTO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CTO as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 4.4%. Return on equity is 8.5%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CTO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CTO would have grown to $1530, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CTO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CTO pay a dividend?
Yes. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 695.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31