CTO
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. Real Estate - REIT - Diversified Investor Relations →
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) closed at $20.28 as of 2026-09-18, trading 29.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.61. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.3x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, CTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 40 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CTO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.1%.
With a market cap of $760 million, CTO is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 8.5%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 41.6% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CTO would have grown to $1438, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. CTO has returned 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CTO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CTO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying CTO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +23.0%), compared to +22.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.2% vs +35.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CTO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CTO would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CTO's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $17.56 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $18.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $19.75 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $21.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $22.56 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $0.10 | $0.38 | +267.8% |
| 2026-04-28 | $0.03 | $0.13 | +420.0% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.02 | $0.82 | +4819.0% |
| 2025-10-28 | — | $0.03 | — |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CTO's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CTO has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +9.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Mar 1981 | 5 | 6.0% | -7.5% | +2720.4% |
| May 1981 | Apr 1983 | 99 | 22.5% | -12.5% | +2569.3% |
| Dec 1989 | Dec 1989 | 3 | 4.5% | -44.5% | +916.9% |
| Jan 1990 | Jun 1992 | 127 | 54.1% | -26.6% | +1003.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Apr 1993 | 40 | 17.5% | +0.4% | +1114.7% |
| Jul 1994 | Jul 1994 | 1 | 0.3% | +15.6% | +1249.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 4 | 2.1% | +37.0% | +1255.1% |
| Nov 1994 | Mar 1995 | 18 | 6.4% | +28.4% | +1241.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1999 | 51 | 26.3% | +8.3% | +851.7% |
| Aug 1999 | Jan 2001 | 75 | 27.4% | -13.1% | +844.6% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +46.5% | +881.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2012 | 245 | 61.9% | -32.3% | +131.5% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 1.6% | +21.4% | +329.3% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 4 | 2.4% | +21.6% | +332.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.3% | +17.5% | +135.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Jan 2021 | 44 | 37.6% | +46.2% | +150.9% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.2% | +47.9% | +128.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Oct 2025 | 1 | 2.8% | N/A | +43.6% |
| Average | 40 | — | +9.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CTO below its 200-week moving average?
No. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (CTO) is currently 29.9% above its 200-week moving average of $15.61. It would need to fall to $15.61 to cross below the line.
What is CTO's 200-week moving average price?
CTO Realty Growth, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $15.61 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CTO drops below its 200-week moving average?
CTO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 40 weeks on average.
Is CTO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CTO as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 8.5%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CTO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in CTO would have grown to $1438, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CTO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CTO pay a dividend?
Yes. CTO Realty Growth, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 745.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18