CSTM
Constellium SE Basic Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Constellium SE (CSTM) closed at $34.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 103.1% above its 200-week moving average of $16.74. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 113.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, CSTM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 634 weeks of data, CSTM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CSTM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.1%.
With a market cap of $4.6 billion, CSTM is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 45.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CSTM would have grown to $110, compared to $487 for the S&P 500. CSTM has returned 0.8% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 6 open-market purchases totaling $2,528,651. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CSTM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CSTM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying CSTM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +5.2% after 12 months (median -17.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +47.7% vs +34.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CSTM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CSTM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CSTM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.60 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $31.01 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $33.86 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.29 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $41.49 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CSTM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CSTM has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +4.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2014 | Jan 2018 | 172 | 80.9% | -71.8% | +53.6% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.1% | -26.6% | +183.3% |
| Feb 2018 | Mar 2018 | 1 | 0.9% | -19.2% | +189.4% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 5 | 8.1% | -20.5% | +219.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 15 | 25.5% | +44.5% | +274.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 2.3% | +14.6% | +309.1% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 5.2% | -32.7% | +326.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 1 | 1.7% | +0.5% | +316.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 35 | 56.6% | +148.5% | +403.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 22.3% | +40.0% | +163.0% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 3 | 4.2% | -16.8% | +114.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2025 | 59 | 49.9% | -11.8% | +105.6% |
| Average | 26 | — | +4.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CSTM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Constellium SE (CSTM) is currently 103.1% above its 200-week moving average of $16.74. It would need to fall to $16.74 to cross below the line.
What is CSTM's 200-week moving average price?
Constellium SE's 200-week moving average is $16.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CSTM drops below its 200-week moving average?
CSTM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is CSTM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CSTM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 45.7%. Price-to-book is 4.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CSTM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.2 years, $100 invested in CSTM would have grown to $110, compared to $487 for the S&P 500. That's 0.8% annualized vs 13.8% for the index. CSTM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19