CRS

Carpenter Technology Corporation Industrials - Metal Fabrication Investor Relations →

NO
262.6% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 253.2% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $161.74
14-Week RSI 87
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.4x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.19

Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) closed at $586.47 as of 2026-06-19, trading 262.6% above its 200-week moving average of $161.74. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 253.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 87, CRS is in overbought territory.

Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 2734 weeks of data, CRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CRS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.

With a market cap of $29.1 billion, CRS is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.0%. Return on equity stands at 24.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.1x book value.

Share count has increased 2.9% over three years, indicating dilution. CRS passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.

Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CRS would have grown to $10288, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CRS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: CRS vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After CRS Crosses Below the Line?

Across 19 historical episodes, buying CRS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.7% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +7.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +82.9% vs +26.4% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CRS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CRS would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.87σ
Current FCF Yield 1.70%
Baseline Yield 2.10%
Historical σ 0.13pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where CRS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$376.30Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$399.22Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$425.11Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$454.60Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$488.48Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from CRS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation -1.64σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score -4.75σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -1.1pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity N/A TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History +0.0pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (+0.6pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Historical Touches

CRS has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Apr 1974Jul 1974129.3%-0.5%+57241.9%
Jul 1974Apr 19753832.8%N/A+57845.5%
May 1975Jul 197599.2%+40.9%+60726.8%
Jul 1975Jul 197511.0%+39.6%+60392.6%
Sep 1975Jan 19761510.7%+48.9%+60392.6%
Feb 1982Feb 198223.2%+10.9%+19845.0%
Mar 1982Apr 198255.4%+16.7%+19845.0%
May 1982Nov 19822421.2%+24.5%+19701.5%
Dec 1982Dec 198223.4%+44.2%+19351.7%
Jul 1984Aug 1984510.8%+4.3%+18127.9%
Oct 1984Jan 19851512.4%-7.9%+16683.0%
Mar 1985Jul 19851813.5%-9.1%+17831.0%
Jul 1985Feb 19877927.6%-27.5%+16890.2%
Mar 1987Mar 198711.2%+20.2%+17328.3%
Oct 1987Dec 198766.0%+30.9%+18352.0%
Oct 1990Dec 1990911.9%+23.0%+13808.9%
Dec 1991Dec 199110.5%+19.6%+12485.1%
Jul 1992Aug 199252.4%+30.5%+12319.6%
Oct 1992Oct 199211.1%+24.8%+12043.4%
Aug 1998Nov 200011741.0%-31.5%+5721.8%
Jan 2001Mar 20026328.8%-14.3%+5801.4%
Jul 2002Sep 20035956.3%-32.2%+7253.0%
Sep 2003Sep 200311.4%+117.8%+7920.9%
Jun 2008Nov 201012872.0%-52.2%+1679.4%
Sep 2014Nov 2014616.4%-35.0%+1434.5%
Nov 2014Sep 201714646.8%-28.2%+1315.8%
Dec 2018Jan 2019513.5%+36.6%+1568.9%
May 2019Jun 201910.4%-41.1%+1526.7%
Jan 2020Feb 20215765.8%-16.0%+1421.7%
Apr 2021May 202115.1%+3.3%+1558.2%
Jun 2021Feb 20223226.3%-28.1%+1499.6%
Feb 2022Mar 202226.0%+45.0%+1573.4%
May 2022Aug 20221426.5%+47.5%+1661.9%
Aug 2022Sep 202215.9%+100.5%+1758.4%
Sep 2022Oct 202249.9%+110.6%+1719.4%
Average25+14.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is CRS below its 200-week moving average?

No. Carpenter Technology Corporation (CRS) is currently 262.6% above its 200-week moving average of $161.74. It would need to fall to $161.74 to cross below the line.

What is CRS's 200-week moving average price?

Carpenter Technology Corporation's 200-week moving average is $161.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when CRS drops below its 200-week moving average?

CRS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.

Is CRS a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about CRS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 87 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.0%. Return on equity is 24.9%. Price-to-book is 14.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does CRS compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CRS would have grown to $10288, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CRS has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does CRS pay a dividend?

Yes. Carpenter Technology Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 14.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19