CPT
Camden Property Trust Real Estate - REIT - Residential Investor Relations →
Camden Property Trust (CPT) closed at $99.12 as of 2026-09-18, trading 2.4% below its 200-week moving average of $101.60. This places CPT in the below line zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 1.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1682 weeks of data, CPT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CPT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.7%.
With a market cap of $11.5 billion, CPT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 7.9%. The stock trades at 2.7x book value.
Over the past 32.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CPT would have grown to $2080, compared to $3015 for the S&P 500. CPT has returned 9.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CPT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CPT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying CPT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.0% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +22.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.3% vs +47.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CPT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CPT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CPT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $89.77 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $95.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $102.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $111.04 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $120.56 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.27 | $0.18 | -34.0% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.25 | $-0.24 | -196.4% |
| 2026-02-05 | $0.28 | $0.39 | +39.9% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.28 | $0.21 | -23.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CPT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CPT has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +15.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1994 | Dec 1994 | 21 | 11.8% | -1.4% | +2067.0% |
| Feb 1995 | May 1995 | 13 | 8.7% | +16.3% | +2079.9% |
| Jun 1995 | Jul 1995 | 2 | 3.2% | +24.1% | +2157.7% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 6 | 2.3% | +18.9% | +2098.1% |
| Oct 1995 | Dec 1995 | 8 | 4.9% | +40.4% | +2143.7% |
| Nov 2007 | Apr 2010 | 128 | 65.8% | -33.9% | +309.5% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 1.4% | +55.3% | +331.5% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 5.9% | +67.5% | +355.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 18.8% | +56.3% | +74.6% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 3.9% | +46.9% | +46.8% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.0% | +72.7% | +38.8% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 1.9% | -9.5% | +3.3% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | -15.6% | +2.6% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 3 | 1.9% | -8.2% | +1.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2024 | 71 | 25.7% | -1.5% | +6.1% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 0.5% | -9.3% | -6.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 4 | 4.9% | +3.5% | -3.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 5.7% | -5.0% | -5.7% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 1.1% | -1.0% | -7.9% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.1% | +6.4% | -8.5% |
| Jul 2025 | Dec 2025 | 20 | 8.5% | +7.8% | -3.5% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 7 | 6.8% | N/A | +0.5% |
| Sep 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 2.4% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 13 | — | +15.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CPT below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Camden Property Trust (CPT) is trading 2.4% below its 200-week moving average of $101.60. The current price is $99.12.
What is CPT's 200-week moving average price?
Camden Property Trust's 200-week moving average is $101.60 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CPT drops below its 200-week moving average?
CPT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is CPT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CPT as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 7.9%. Price-to-book is 2.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CPT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.3 years, $100 invested in CPT would have grown to $2080, compared to $3015 for the S&P 500. That's 9.8% annualized vs 11.1% for the index. CPT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CPT pay a dividend?
Yes. Camden Property Trust currently pays a dividend yield of 428.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18