CP
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Industrials Investor Relations →
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) closed at $92.36 as of 2026-07-24, trading 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $77.62. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, CP is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.92 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2173 weeks of data, CP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.4%.
With a market cap of $82.0 billion, CP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.3%. Return on equity stands at 8.4%. The stock trades at 2.5x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CP would have grown to $12201, compared to $3064 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.4% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming CP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying CP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +17.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.9% vs +32.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $76.32 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $80.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $85.07 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $90.24 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $96.09 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CP has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +15.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 8 | 5.2% | -7.8% | +16435.3% |
| Feb 1986 | Feb 1986 | 1 | 3.8% | +54.8% | +16989.8% |
| May 1986 | May 1986 | 1 | 0.7% | +56.1% | +16323.0% |
| Jun 1986 | Nov 1986 | 22 | 16.1% | +61.5% | +16331.5% |
| Jul 1990 | Dec 1990 | 18 | 11.3% | +2.8% | +9781.1% |
| Dec 1990 | Jan 1991 | 5 | 3.4% | -12.0% | +9510.8% |
| Mar 1991 | Mar 1991 | 1 | 0.7% | -14.0% | +9456.9% |
| Apr 1991 | Apr 1991 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.4% | +9387.2% |
| May 1991 | May 1991 | 2 | 3.8% | -7.4% | +9599.6% |
| Jun 1991 | Jul 1991 | 3 | 2.0% | -8.1% | +9527.7% |
| Jul 1991 | Apr 1993 | 90 | 33.7% | -13.0% | +9436.4% |
| Jul 1993 | Aug 1993 | 3 | 4.5% | +7.7% | +10248.1% |
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 1 | 0.5% | +15.9% | +9911.6% |
| Jun 1994 | Aug 1994 | 7 | 3.2% | +20.2% | +10047.0% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 1 | 5.4% | +32.1% | +10478.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Mar 1995 | 10 | 6.9% | +32.9% | +10612.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 3 | 4.7% | +19.0% | +6570.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 14.1% | +12.6% | +6818.6% |
| Nov 1998 | Apr 1999 | 24 | 17.1% | +8.7% | +6136.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 4 | 8.9% | +16.0% | +5890.5% |
| Nov 1999 | Apr 2000 | 24 | 21.2% | +28.8% | +5792.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Dec 2009 | 62 | 50.1% | -0.1% | +1130.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Mar 2010 | 6 | 9.6% | +35.1% | +984.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 5 | 10.4% | +66.6% | +935.5% |
| Nov 2015 | Nov 2015 | 2 | 1.4% | +5.6% | +278.5% |
| Nov 2015 | Apr 2016 | 19 | 24.8% | +13.5% | +278.0% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 11 | 14.4% | +12.8% | +264.8% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 1.7% | +9.1% | +250.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 3 | 1.4% | +9.6% | +241.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 6 | 6.2% | +22.0% | +242.3% |
| Dec 2016 | Apr 2017 | 18 | 5.3% | +24.2% | +246.4% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 0.3% | +26.7% | +226.5% |
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 3 | 2.1% | +32.9% | +224.4% |
| Nov 2024 | Nov 2024 | 1 | 2.3% | -3.7% | +26.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 7 | 4.8% | -1.3% | +24.2% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 9 | 8.4% | +8.7% | +24.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Feb 2026 | 27 | 8.2% | N/A | +27.6% |
| Average | 11 | — | +15.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CP below its 200-week moving average?
No. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CP) is currently 19.0% above its 200-week moving average of $77.62. It would need to fall to $77.62 to cross below the line.
What is CP's 200-week moving average price?
Canadian Pacific Kansas City's 200-week moving average is $77.62 as of 2026-07-24. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CP drops below its 200-week moving average?
CP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is CP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CP as of 2026-07-24: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.3%. Return on equity is 8.4%. Price-to-book is 2.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CP would have grown to $12201, compared to $3064 for the S&P 500. That's 15.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CP has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CP pay a dividend?
Yes. Canadian Pacific Kansas City currently pays a dividend yield of 74.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-24