COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation Consumer Staples - Retail Investor Relations →
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) closed at $951.89 as of 2026-07-31, trading 22.9% above its 200-week moving average of $774.20. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 21.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 40, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2042 weeks of data, COST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.0%.
With a market cap of $422.1 billion, COST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 29.2%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 25.5x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COST would have grown to $15265, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming COST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying COST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.5% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-24.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $914.29 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $933.20 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $952.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $973.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $994.92 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from COST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
COST has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +11.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 39.7% | -1.5% | +13947.7% |
| Feb 1988 | Jun 1988 | 14 | 8.0% | -3.2% | +14768.6% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 11.3% | +3.5% | +14625.2% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 3.6% | +15.7% | +14865.8% |
| Dec 1988 | Apr 1989 | 16 | 8.7% | +18.2% | +14768.6% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 5 | 5.1% | +10.1% | +14301.1% |
| Mar 1990 | Jun 1990 | 13 | 15.5% | +20.6% | +14672.7% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 30.6% | +33.1% | +14484.5% |
| Mar 1992 | Feb 1994 | 100 | 31.2% | -5.4% | +17650.1% |
| Mar 1994 | Jul 1995 | 69 | 36.9% | -34.2% | +14122.2% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 4 | 1.5% | +22.0% | +16432.6% |
| Nov 1995 | Feb 1996 | 13 | 10.4% | +28.7% | +17650.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 13.9% | +1.7% | +4114.1% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -10.6% | +3578.0% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2004 | 80 | 30.5% | -6.8% | +3605.6% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | 2.1% | +21.4% | +3902.5% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 28.9% | +10.4% | +2443.1% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 3.7% | +52.3% | +2368.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.4% | +33.2% | +2311.2% |
| Average | 23 | — | +11.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is currently 22.9% above its 200-week moving average of $774.20. It would need to fall to $774.20 to cross below the line.
What is COST's 200-week moving average price?
Costco Wholesale Corporation's 200-week moving average is $774.20 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COST drops below its 200-week moving average?
COST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is COST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COST as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 40. Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 29.2%. Price-to-book is 25.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in COST would have grown to $15265, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 16.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. COST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COST pay a dividend?
Yes. Costco Wholesale Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 62.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31