COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation Consumer Staples - Retail Investor Relations →
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) closed at $1011.70 as of 2026-05-01, trading 35.9% above its 200-week moving average of $744.55. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 36.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2029 weeks of data, COST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.0%.
With a market cap of $448.8 billion, COST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.5%. Return on equity stands at 29.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 27.1x book value.
Over the past 33.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COST would have grown to $16198, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.5% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming COST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying COST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.4% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
COST has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +11.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 39.7% | -1.5% | +14806.6% |
| Feb 1988 | Jun 1988 | 14 | 8.0% | -3.2% | +15677.8% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 11.3% | +3.5% | +15525.6% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 3.6% | +15.7% | +15780.9% |
| Dec 1988 | Apr 1989 | 16 | 8.7% | +18.2% | +15677.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 5 | 5.1% | +10.1% | +15181.6% |
| Mar 1990 | Jun 1990 | 13 | 15.5% | +20.6% | +15576.0% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 30.6% | +33.1% | +15376.3% |
| Mar 1992 | Feb 1994 | 100 | 31.2% | -5.4% | +18735.5% |
| Mar 1994 | Jul 1995 | 69 | 36.9% | -34.2% | +14991.8% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 4 | 1.5% | +22.0% | +17443.5% |
| Nov 1995 | Feb 1996 | 13 | 10.4% | +28.7% | +18735.5% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 13.9% | +1.7% | +4371.8% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -10.6% | +3802.9% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2004 | 80 | 30.5% | -6.8% | +3832.2% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | 2.4% | +21.4% | +4158.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 28.9% | +10.4% | +2598.6% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 3.7% | +52.3% | +2519.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.3% | +33.2% | +2458.7% |
| Average | 23 | — | +11.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is currently 35.9% above its 200-week moving average of $744.55. It would need to fall to $744.55 to cross below the line.
What is COST's 200-week moving average price?
Costco Wholesale Corporation's 200-week moving average is $744.55 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COST drops below its 200-week moving average?
COST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 23 weeks on average.
Is COST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COST as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow yield is 1.5%. Return on equity is 29.7%. Price-to-book is 27.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.3 years, $100 invested in COST would have grown to $16198, compared to $2973 for the S&P 500. That's 16.5% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. COST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COST pay a dividend?
Yes. Costco Wholesale Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 58.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01