COST
Costco Wholesale Corporation Consumer Staples - Retail Investor Relations →
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) closed at $1001.16 as of 2026-02-02, trading 40.2% above its 200-week moving average of $713.90. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 31.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 2017 weeks of data, COST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 23 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.0%.
With a market cap of $444.5 billion, COST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 30.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 14.7x book value.
COST passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COST would have grown to $16006, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.5% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming COST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 30.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: COST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 11 historical episodes, buying COST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +9.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 55% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.4% vs +34.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
COST has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +11.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Feb 1988 | 19 | 39.7% | -1.5% | +14629.9% |
| Feb 1988 | Jun 1988 | 14 | 8.0% | -3.2% | +15490.8% |
| Jun 1988 | Sep 1988 | 14 | 11.3% | +3.5% | +15340.4% |
| Nov 1988 | Nov 1988 | 3 | 3.6% | +15.7% | +15592.7% |
| Dec 1988 | Apr 1989 | 16 | 8.7% | +18.2% | +15490.8% |
| Jan 1990 | Mar 1990 | 5 | 5.1% | +10.1% | +15000.5% |
| Mar 1990 | Jun 1990 | 13 | 15.5% | +20.6% | +15390.2% |
| Jul 1990 | Jan 1991 | 24 | 30.6% | +33.1% | +15192.9% |
| Mar 1992 | Feb 1994 | 100 | 31.2% | -5.4% | +18512.3% |
| Mar 1994 | Jul 1995 | 69 | 36.9% | -34.2% | +14812.9% |
| Jul 1995 | Aug 1995 | 4 | 1.5% | +22.0% | +17235.6% |
| Nov 1995 | Feb 1996 | 13 | 10.4% | +28.7% | +18512.3% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 5 | 13.9% | +1.7% | +4318.8% |
| May 2002 | May 2002 | 1 | 0.1% | -10.6% | +3756.6% |
| Jun 2002 | Jan 2004 | 80 | 30.5% | -6.8% | +3785.6% |
| May 2004 | May 2004 | 2 | 2.4% | +21.4% | +4108.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Aug 2009 | 47 | 28.9% | +10.4% | +2566.6% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 4 | 3.7% | +52.3% | +2488.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 2.3% | +33.2% | +2428.3% |
| Average | 23 | — | +11.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02