COP
ConocoPhillips Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $107.62 as of 2026-02-02, trading 7.7% above its 200-week moving average of $99.90. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 4.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, COP is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2253 weeks of data, COP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +23.3%.
With a market cap of $133.0 billion, COP is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 12.4%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COP would have grown to $2968, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming COP as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $999,472.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -11.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: COP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 13 historical episodes, buying COP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.9% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.4% vs +23.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
COP has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +23.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1986 | Nov 1986 | 41 | 21.2% | +23.3% | +10229.5% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 8 | 12.1% | +77.6% | +8541.0% |
| Jan 1999 | Mar 1999 | 5 | 4.4% | +6.3% | +1618.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 10 | 14.0% | +33.2% | +1410.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 3 | 5.9% | +13.1% | +1132.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Mar 2003 | 26 | 9.7% | +18.5% | +1128.6% |
| Apr 2003 | Apr 2003 | 1 | 1.2% | +46.7% | +1070.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2010 | 105 | 45.9% | -26.3% | +292.0% |
| Jul 2015 | Oct 2017 | 121 | 43.6% | -25.5% | +154.1% |
| Nov 2017 | Dec 2017 | 4 | 3.7% | +34.3% | +178.2% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 2 | 3.0% | -17.9% | +162.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 52 | 50.0% | +12.0% | +174.8% |
| Apr 2021 | May 2021 | 4 | 3.3% | +107.7% | +149.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 4.8% | N/A | +21.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Jan 2026 | 43 | 13.2% | N/A | +28.0% |
| Average | 28 | — | +23.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02