COLM
Columbia Sportswear Company Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing Investor Relations →
Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) closed at $59.38 as of 2026-07-31, trading 16.0% below its 200-week moving average of $70.69. This places COLM in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -11.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 49, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1431 weeks of data, COLM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COLM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +35.5%.
With a market cap of $3.0 billion, COLM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.3%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 12.7%. The stock trades at 1.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 13.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 27.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COLM would have grown to $1463, compared to $936 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.3% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming COLM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COLM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COLM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying COLM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +29.0% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +15.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.5% vs +19.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COLM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices COLM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where COLM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.13 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $54.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $58.98 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $64.69 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $71.63 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from COLM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
COLM has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +35.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1999 | Jul 1999 | 18 | 32.5% | +70.8% | +1896.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Aug 1999 | 3 | 4.9% | +136.1% | +1341.1% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 4 | 7.8% | +184.5% | +1385.8% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 1 | 1.7% | +189.3% | +1319.8% |
| Apr 2005 | Jun 2005 | 6 | 5.4% | +18.3% | +271.5% |
| Aug 2005 | Jan 2006 | 21 | 11.0% | +9.3% | +252.8% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2006 | 16 | 12.1% | +36.5% | +223.9% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2010 | 123 | 45.6% | -29.2% | +209.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Jun 2020 | 12 | 20.5% | +49.7% | -8.0% |
| Jul 2020 | Jul 2020 | 1 | 0.7% | +32.4% | -15.9% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 2 | 2.4% | +32.0% | -14.8% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 3 | 6.4% | +40.3% | -13.4% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 2 | 1.9% | +0.9% | -28.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 6.2% | +0.8% | -29.4% |
| Mar 2022 | Nov 2022 | 34 | 24.5% | +1.5% | -29.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 4.7% | -7.0% | -28.0% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 5 | 2.0% | -4.5% | -28.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Nov 2024 | 82 | 17.7% | -2.7% | -24.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 2 | 0.5% | -30.9% | -26.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Feb 2025 | 1 | 4.1% | -18.8% | -22.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Ongoing | 73+ | 37.1% | Ongoing | -22.3% |
| Average | 20 | — | +35.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COLM below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Columbia Sportswear Company (COLM) is trading 16.0% below its 200-week moving average of $70.69. The current price is $59.38.
What is COLM's 200-week moving average price?
Columbia Sportswear Company's 200-week moving average is $70.69 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COLM drops below its 200-week moving average?
COLM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +35.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is COLM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COLM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 49. Free cash flow yield is 8.3%. Return on equity is 12.7%. Price-to-book is 1.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COLM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.4 years, $100 invested in COLM would have grown to $1463, compared to $936 for the S&P 500. That's 10.3% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. COLM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does COLM pay a dividend?
Yes. Columbia Sportswear Company currently pays a dividend yield of 202.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31