COGT
Cogent Biosciences, Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) closed at $33.38 as of 2026-03-20, trading 165.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.58. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 173.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 32, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 368 weeks of data, COGT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 84 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COGT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +74.8%.
With a market cap of $5.4 billion, COGT is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -73.7%. The stock trades at 9.8x book value.
Share count has increased 130.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 7.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COGT would have grown to $190, compared to $256 for the S&P 500. COGT has returned 9.5% annualized vs 14.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $24,999,993.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: COGT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COGT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying COGT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +89.3% after 12 months (median +38.0%), compared to +15.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +22.0% vs +56.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COGT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
COGT has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +74.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2019 | Jul 2022 | 174 | 94.4% | -87.2% | +102.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Aug 2024 | 44 | 53.1% | +34.8% | +278.0% |
| Nov 2024 | Jul 2025 | 34 | 54.6% | +276.9% | +275.1% |
| Average | 84 | — | +74.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is COGT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cogent Biosciences, Inc. (COGT) is currently 165.3% above its 200-week moving average of $12.58. It would need to fall to $12.58 to cross below the line.
What is COGT's 200-week moving average price?
Cogent Biosciences, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $12.58 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when COGT drops below its 200-week moving average?
COGT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +74.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 84 weeks on average.
Is COGT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about COGT as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 32. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -73.7%. Price-to-book is 9.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does COGT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.1 years, $100 invested in COGT would have grown to $190, compared to $256 for the S&P 500. That's 9.5% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. COGT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20