COF
Capital One Financial Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Capital One Financial Corporation (COF) closed at $222.79 as of 2026-02-02, trading 55.8% above its 200-week moving average of $143.04. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 53.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1581 weeks of data, COF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought COF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.8%.
With a market cap of $141.6 billion, COF is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 2.4%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 30.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in COF would have grown to $3601, compared to $2006 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.5% vs 10.4% for the index — confirming COF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 13.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: COF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After COF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying COF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.0% after 12 months (median +26.0%), compared to +11.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +55.6% vs +29.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment COF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
COF has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +12.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2001 | Sep 2001 | 1 | 12.5% | -12.6% | +666.7% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 4 | 5.5% | -31.4% | +584.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 4 | 9.4% | -35.7% | +533.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Jun 2003 | 46 | 44.5% | +39.5% | +769.5% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 0.0% | +44.0% | +524.2% |
| Jul 2003 | Aug 2003 | 4 | 3.9% | +35.1% | +523.2% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 3 | 1.8% | -29.5% | +313.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Dec 2010 | 180 | 86.5% | -48.0% | +302.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 10.5% | +41.2% | +315.6% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 3.1% | +28.1% | +297.8% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +18.1% | +286.0% |
| Jun 2016 | Aug 2016 | 11 | 10.8% | +29.4% | +310.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 9.8% | +35.0% | +219.4% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 3 | 3.3% | +33.4% | +215.8% |
| Mar 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -42.8% | +212.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 50.0% | +57.2% | +199.0% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 19 | 14.3% | +5.1% | +132.2% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 18.9% | +42.9% | +137.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 15 | 15.9% | +34.8% | +119.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +12.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02