CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) closed at $31.59 as of 2026-09-18, trading 41.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.26. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 43.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1645 weeks of data, CNOB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CNOB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $1590 million, CNOB is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.2%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 28.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CNOB would have grown to $1575, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. CNOB has returned 9.1% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CNOB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CNOB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CNOB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.1% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +35.6% vs +26.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CNOB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CNOB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CNOB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.16 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $32.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $34.30 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $36.83 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.76 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.82 | $0.84 | +2.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.73 | $0.79 | +8.2% |
| 2026-01-29 | $0.73 | $0.83 | +14.0% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.67 | $0.70 | +4.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CNOB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CNOB has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Sep 1995 | 25 | 4.7% | +28.2% | +1475.3% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 5 | 2.2% | +20.7% | +1454.3% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 6.1% | +3.1% | +980.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.9% | +929.1% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 6 | 7.3% | +51.0% | +929.1% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2006 | 55 | 10.2% | +6.2% | +360.6% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 5 | 8.0% | -0.4% | +317.9% |
| Sep 2007 | Nov 2007 | 8 | 6.4% | -13.9% | +294.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2011 | 165 | 40.7% | -31.1% | +296.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 2.2% | +61.9% | +153.8% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 2.6% | +48.1% | +151.7% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 9 | 4.6% | +38.2% | +147.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 16 | 16.9% | +22.5% | +91.4% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 11.2% | -2.2% | +84.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 1.7% | -28.9% | +80.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 6.7% | -28.0% | +81.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 46 | 51.9% | +13.0% | +78.7% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | -20.0% | +57.8% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 4.1% | +8.8% | +60.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 40.1% | -4.3% | +65.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 24 | 21.6% | +21.1% | +58.3% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.1% | +4.6% | +53.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 5.8% | +22.0% | +46.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.6% | +28.7% | +52.3% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | +51.3% | +46.7% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +52.3% | +46.9% |
| Average | 17 | — | +14.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNOB below its 200-week moving average?
No. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) is currently 41.9% above its 200-week moving average of $22.26. It would need to fall to $22.26 to cross below the line.
What is CNOB's 200-week moving average price?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $22.26 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CNOB drops below its 200-week moving average?
CNOB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CNOB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CNOB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 44. Return on equity is 10.2%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CNOB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.6 years, $100 invested in CNOB would have grown to $1575, compared to $2624 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. CNOB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CNOB pay a dividend?
Yes. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 247.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18