CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) closed at $32.45 as of 2026-06-19, trading 49.7% above its 200-week moving average of $21.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 51.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 84, CNOB is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1632 weeks of data, CNOB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CNOB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.3%.
With a market cap of $1632 million, CNOB is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.9%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 28.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 31.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CNOB would have grown to $1609, compared to $2580 for the S&P 500. CNOB has returned 9.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -16.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CNOB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CNOB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CNOB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.5% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.5% vs +26.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CNOB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CNOB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CNOB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.10 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $27.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.29 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $29.53 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $30.89 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CNOB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CNOB has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +13.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1995 | Sep 1995 | 25 | 4.6% | +28.2% | +1508.7% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 5 | 2.2% | +20.7% | +1487.3% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 7.1% | +3.1% | +1003.7% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | +30.9% | +951.0% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 6 | 7.3% | +51.0% | +950.9% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2006 | 55 | 10.2% | +6.2% | +370.4% |
| Aug 2007 | Sep 2007 | 5 | 8.0% | -0.4% | +326.8% |
| Sep 2007 | Nov 2007 | 8 | 6.4% | -13.9% | +303.3% |
| Dec 2007 | Feb 2011 | 165 | 40.7% | -31.1% | +305.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 2.2% | +61.9% | +159.1% |
| Mar 2016 | Apr 2016 | 3 | 2.6% | +48.1% | +157.0% |
| May 2016 | Jul 2016 | 8 | 4.5% | +38.0% | +154.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 16 | 16.8% | +22.5% | +95.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 7 | 11.2% | -2.2% | +88.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 2 | 1.7% | -28.9% | +84.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 6.6% | -28.0% | +85.3% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 46 | 51.9% | +13.0% | +82.4% |
| Oct 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 0.5% | -20.0% | +61.1% |
| Jan 2023 | Jan 2023 | 1 | 4.1% | +8.8% | +63.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 40 | 40.8% | -4.3% | +69.1% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 24 | 21.6% | +21.1% | +61.7% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.1% | +4.6% | +57.0% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 3 | 5.8% | +22.0% | +49.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.5% | +28.7% | +55.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | +51.3% | +49.8% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +50.1% |
| Average | 17 | — | +13.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNOB below its 200-week moving average?
No. ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc. (CNOB) is currently 49.7% above its 200-week moving average of $21.67. It would need to fall to $21.67 to cross below the line.
What is CNOB's 200-week moving average price?
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $21.67 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CNOB drops below its 200-week moving average?
CNOB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CNOB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CNOB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 84 (overbought). Return on equity is 6.9%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CNOB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.3 years, $100 invested in CNOB would have grown to $1609, compared to $2580 for the S&P 500. That's 9.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. CNOB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19