CNI
Canadian National Railway Industrials Investor Relations →
Canadian National Railway (CNI) closed at $129.48 as of 2026-07-24, trading 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $107.77. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 19.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, CNI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.78 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1499 weeks of data, CNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CNI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +26.6%.
With a market cap of $78.3 billion, CNI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 21.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CNI would have grown to $5058, compared to $1268 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.6% vs 9.2% for the index — confirming CNI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -4.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CNI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CNI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying CNI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.2% after 12 months (median +32.0%), compared to +23.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.1% vs +39.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CNI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CNI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CNI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $99.67 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $104.82 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $110.52 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $116.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $124.01 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CNI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CNI has crossed below its 200-week MA 14 times with an average 1-year return of +26.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 8 | 11.3% | +41.9% | +5453.8% |
| Feb 1999 | Mar 1999 | 2 | 0.5% | -0.4% | +5181.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 8 | 7.7% | +30.5% | +4896.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 3 | 8.8% | +31.2% | +788.1% |
| Nov 2008 | Jun 2009 | 29 | 28.9% | +50.3% | +865.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 5 | 10.5% | +48.4% | +717.4% |
| Dec 2015 | Dec 2015 | 1 | 1.2% | +34.3% | +198.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 5 | 7.6% | +37.1% | +206.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 11.5% | +52.4% | +89.0% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 1 | 0.6% | +40.1% | +87.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 4 | 2.9% | +8.1% | +27.9% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 3 | 2.7% | -15.4% | +20.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Feb 2026 | 72 | 17.3% | -13.0% | +18.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 5 | 8.6% | N/A | +22.7% |
| Average | 11 | — | +26.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Canadian National Railway (CNI) is currently 20.1% above its 200-week moving average of $107.77. It would need to fall to $107.77 to cross below the line.
What is CNI's 200-week moving average price?
Canadian National Railway's 200-week moving average is $107.77 as of 2026-07-24. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CNI drops below its 200-week moving average?
CNI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 14 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +26.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is CNI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CNI as of 2026-07-24: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.3%. Return on equity is 21.8%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CNI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in CNI would have grown to $5058, compared to $1268 for the S&P 500. That's 14.6% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. CNI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CNI pay a dividend?
Yes. Canadian National Railway currently pays a dividend yield of 197.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-24