CNA
CNA Financial Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Property & Casualty Investor Relations →
CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) closed at $44.52 as of 2026-06-19, trading 16.8% above its 200-week moving average of $38.12. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 45, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.70 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, CNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CNA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.5%.
With a market cap of $12.0 billion, CNA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 14.6%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 11.5%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CNA would have grown to $388, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. CNA has returned 4.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -0.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CNA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CNA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying CNA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +6.4% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +7.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.0% vs +17.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CNA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CNA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CNA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.25 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $46.23 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $48.52 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $51.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CNA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CNA has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1976 | 109 | 75.5% | -52.1% | +4067.6% |
| Mar 1976 | Mar 1976 | 1 | 5.5% | -3.3% | +4750.8% |
| Apr 1976 | Jan 1977 | 40 | 30.2% | -8.2% | +4750.8% |
| Feb 1977 | Mar 1977 | 2 | 3.3% | +13.6% | +4915.2% |
| Mar 1977 | Apr 1977 | 3 | 6.9% | +36.8% | +5091.2% |
| May 1977 | Jun 1977 | 8 | 3.5% | +57.1% | +5183.9% |
| Oct 1977 | Oct 1977 | 2 | 2.4% | +43.1% | +5701.9% |
| Sep 1981 | Nov 1981 | 11 | 14.0% | +8.5% | +2691.5% |
| Dec 1981 | Dec 1981 | 3 | 7.8% | +30.6% | +2639.8% |
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 1 | 1.5% | +32.7% | +2590.0% |
| Feb 1982 | Feb 1982 | 1 | 0.2% | +22.3% | +2542.0% |
| Mar 1982 | Sep 1982 | 26 | 26.4% | +35.4% | +2518.6% |
| Jul 1988 | Aug 1988 | 6 | 1.7% | +45.8% | +591.4% |
| Sep 1990 | Dec 1990 | 15 | 18.7% | +29.7% | +466.9% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 3.3% | +60.4% | +482.5% |
| Oct 1993 | May 1995 | 82 | 26.2% | -26.1% | +344.3% |
| Jan 1999 | Apr 1999 | 13 | 11.6% | -2.8% | +246.1% |
| Jul 1999 | Nov 1999 | 16 | 11.6% | -2.1% | +220.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Aug 2000 | 31 | 32.4% | -3.6% | +227.1% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 1 | 0.7% | -25.0% | +221.3% |
| Sep 2000 | May 2001 | 35 | 13.7% | -36.3% | +222.3% |
| Jul 2001 | May 2004 | 149 | 36.6% | -37.4% | +224.4% |
| Jul 2004 | Jan 2005 | 29 | 19.9% | +1.9% | +334.1% |
| Apr 2005 | Apr 2005 | 1 | 0.8% | +19.4% | +370.4% |
| Dec 2007 | Jul 2010 | 133 | 77.7% | -45.7% | +283.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 4.4% | -15.3% | +335.6% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 3 | 3.8% | +1.3% | +345.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 8.8% | +10.4% | +393.6% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 7 | 14.2% | +39.0% | +210.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 2.5% | +70.2% | +201.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 40 | 33.3% | +38.9% | +98.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | +24.2% | +76.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 0.6% | +16.5% | +62.2% |
| Average | 24 | — | +11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CNA below its 200-week moving average?
No. CNA Financial Corporation (CNA) is currently 16.8% above its 200-week moving average of $38.12. It would need to fall to $38.12 to cross below the line.
What is CNA's 200-week moving average price?
CNA Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $38.12 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CNA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is CNA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CNA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 45. Free cash flow yield is 14.6%. Return on equity is 11.5%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CNA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CNA would have grown to $388, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 4.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CNA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CNA pay a dividend?
Yes. CNA Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 422.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19