CMI
Cummins Inc. Industrials - Engines Investor Relations →
Cummins Inc. (CMI) closed at $634.20 as of 2026-07-31, trading 87.6% above its 200-week moving average of $338.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 97.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, CMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.3%.
With a market cap of $87.5 billion, CMI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.1x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMI would have grown to $13462, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CMI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.8% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +14.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.3% vs +41.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $545.84 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $581.42 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $621.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $668.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $722.75 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CMI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 33 times with an average 1-year return of +13.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Feb 1976 | 108 | 63.9% | -48.9% | +38343.5% |
| Feb 1978 | Feb 1978 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.9% | +42247.9% |
| Oct 1978 | Jan 1979 | 15 | 12.4% | -8.7% | +40964.6% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 5 | 6.1% | -7.0% | +38072.7% |
| Apr 1979 | Apr 1979 | 1 | 0.6% | -20.5% | +37026.9% |
| Apr 1979 | May 1979 | 2 | 3.0% | -20.1% | +36900.2% |
| May 1979 | Mar 1981 | 94 | 29.8% | -18.5% | +36401.9% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 5 | 7.7% | +8.4% | +37805.8% |
| Dec 1981 | Mar 1982 | 13 | 8.4% | +37.3% | +38072.7% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 17 | 24.5% | +52.7% | +38756.8% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 3.5% | +95.6% | +39903.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Dec 1986 | 20 | 19.3% | +51.8% | +21113.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 62 | 37.0% | -25.5% | +18395.7% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.3% | -19.3% | +19334.0% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1989 | 2 | 3.0% | -9.3% | +19588.7% |
| Aug 1989 | Aug 1989 | 2 | 0.5% | -24.4% | +19020.4% |
| Sep 1989 | Oct 1991 | 111 | 40.2% | -33.5% | +19083.9% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +0.5% | +12925.5% |
| Sep 1995 | Feb 1996 | 23 | 13.8% | +5.2% | +13490.0% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | +37.0% | +12445.2% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.1% | +12367.5% |
| Jun 1996 | Oct 1996 | 16 | 8.2% | +79.9% | +12296.4% |
| Aug 1998 | Apr 1999 | 34 | 38.6% | +27.5% | +10021.0% |
| Nov 1999 | May 2001 | 80 | 42.7% | -19.8% | +10516.5% |
| Jun 2001 | Dec 2001 | 29 | 26.0% | -17.0% | +10279.9% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 6 | 9.5% | -21.3% | +11461.3% |
| May 2002 | May 2003 | 52 | 40.2% | -3.8% | +11522.2% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 48.0% | +51.7% | +2900.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Jul 2016 | 47 | 28.7% | +10.9% | +615.9% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.3% | +597.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.6% | +43.0% | +498.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.7% | +45.6% | +495.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.2% | +105.4% | +437.4% |
| Average | 24 | — | +13.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cummins Inc. (CMI) is currently 87.6% above its 200-week moving average of $338.13. It would need to fall to $338.13 to cross below the line.
What is CMI's 200-week moving average price?
Cummins Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $338.13 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMI drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 33 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is CMI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Return on equity is 22.0%. Price-to-book is 7.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CMI would have grown to $13462, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 15.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CMI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CMI pay a dividend?
Yes. Cummins Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 139.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31