CMI
Cummins Inc. Industrials - Engines Investor Relations →
Cummins Inc. (CMI) closed at $716.86 as of 2026-06-19, trading 121.3% above its 200-week moving average of $323.99. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 105.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 78, CMI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, CMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $98.9 billion, CMI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.7%. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 8.0x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMI would have grown to $15217, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CMI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 31.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.8% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +14.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.4% vs +41.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $544.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $576.45 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $612.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $652.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $699.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CMI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Feb 1976 | 108 | 63.9% | -48.9% | +43354.1% |
| Feb 1978 | Feb 1978 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.9% | +47767.4% |
| Oct 1978 | Jan 1979 | 15 | 12.4% | -8.7% | +46316.9% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 5 | 6.1% | -7.0% | +43048.1% |
| Apr 1979 | Apr 1979 | 1 | 0.6% | -20.5% | +41865.9% |
| Apr 1979 | May 1979 | 2 | 3.0% | -20.1% | +41722.7% |
| May 1979 | Mar 1981 | 94 | 29.8% | -18.5% | +41159.4% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 5 | 7.7% | +8.4% | +42746.3% |
| Dec 1981 | Mar 1982 | 13 | 8.4% | +37.3% | +43048.1% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 17 | 24.5% | +52.7% | +43821.3% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 3.5% | +95.6% | +45117.9% |
| Jul 1986 | Dec 1986 | 20 | 19.2% | +51.8% | +23878.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 62 | 36.9% | -25.5% | +20806.4% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.3% | -19.3% | +21867.0% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1989 | 2 | 2.9% | -9.3% | +22154.9% |
| Aug 1989 | Oct 1991 | 115 | 40.2% | -24.4% | +21512.5% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | +0.5% | +14623.2% |
| Sep 1995 | Feb 1996 | 23 | 13.8% | +5.2% | +15261.2% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | +37.0% | +14080.3% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.0% | +31.1% | +13992.5% |
| Jun 1996 | Oct 1996 | 16 | 8.8% | +79.9% | +13912.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Apr 1999 | 34 | 38.6% | +27.5% | +11340.1% |
| Nov 1999 | May 2001 | 80 | 42.6% | -19.8% | +11900.2% |
| Jun 2001 | Dec 2001 | 29 | 25.9% | -17.0% | +11632.8% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 6 | 9.5% | -21.3% | +12968.2% |
| May 2002 | May 2003 | 52 | 40.2% | -3.1% | +13137.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 48.0% | +51.7% | +3291.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Jul 2016 | 47 | 28.7% | +9.2% | +703.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.3% | +688.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.0% | +576.0% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.6% | +45.6% | +573.6% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.2% | +105.4% | +507.5% |
| Average | 25 | — | +14.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cummins Inc. (CMI) is currently 121.3% above its 200-week moving average of $323.99. It would need to fall to $323.99 to cross below the line.
What is CMI's 200-week moving average price?
Cummins Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $323.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMI drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CMI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 78 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.7%. Return on equity is 22.0%. Price-to-book is 8.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CMI would have grown to $15217, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 16.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CMI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19