CMI
Cummins Inc. Industrials - Engines Investor Relations →
Cummins Inc. (CMI) closed at $577.73 as of 2026-02-02, trading 102.6% above its 200-week moving average of $285.16. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 104.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 88, CMI is in overbought territory.
Over the past 2715 weeks of data, CMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.8%.
With a market cap of $79.8 billion, CMI is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 23.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.5x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMI would have grown to $12184, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.6% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming CMI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -43.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: CMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.8% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +14.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 69% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.4% vs +41.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +14.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Feb 1976 | 108 | 63.9% | -48.9% | +34693.8% |
| Feb 1978 | Feb 1978 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.9% | +38227.5% |
| Oct 1978 | Jan 1979 | 15 | 12.4% | -8.7% | +37066.1% |
| Feb 1979 | Mar 1979 | 5 | 6.1% | -7.0% | +34448.8% |
| Apr 1979 | Apr 1979 | 1 | 0.6% | -20.5% | +33502.2% |
| Apr 1979 | May 1979 | 2 | 3.0% | -20.1% | +33387.5% |
| May 1979 | Mar 1981 | 94 | 29.8% | -18.5% | +32936.5% |
| Oct 1981 | Nov 1981 | 5 | 7.7% | +8.4% | +34207.1% |
| Dec 1981 | Mar 1982 | 13 | 8.4% | +37.3% | +34448.8% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 17 | 24.5% | +52.7% | +35067.9% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 1 | 3.5% | +95.6% | +36106.1% |
| Jul 1986 | Dec 1986 | 20 | 19.2% | +51.8% | +19099.9% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1988 | 62 | 36.9% | -25.5% | +16639.8% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.3% | -19.3% | +17489.0% |
| Jul 1989 | Jul 1989 | 2 | 2.9% | -9.3% | +17719.6% |
| Aug 1989 | Oct 1991 | 115 | 40.2% | -24.4% | +17205.2% |
| Aug 1995 | Aug 1995 | 1 | 0.3% | +0.5% | +11688.9% |
| Sep 1995 | Feb 1996 | 23 | 13.8% | +5.2% | +12199.8% |
| Mar 1996 | Mar 1996 | 1 | 0.4% | +37.0% | +11254.2% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.0% | +31.1% | +11183.9% |
| Jun 1996 | Oct 1996 | 16 | 8.8% | +79.9% | +11119.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Apr 1999 | 34 | 38.6% | +27.5% | +9060.1% |
| Nov 1999 | May 2001 | 80 | 42.6% | -19.8% | +9508.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Dec 2001 | 29 | 25.9% | -17.0% | +9294.5% |
| Jan 2002 | Feb 2002 | 6 | 9.5% | -21.3% | +10363.8% |
| May 2002 | May 2003 | 52 | 40.2% | -3.1% | +10498.9% |
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 41 | 48.0% | +51.7% | +2615.4% |
| Aug 2015 | Jul 2016 | 47 | 28.7% | +9.2% | +543.4% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.3% | +531.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Oct 2018 | 1 | 1.5% | +43.0% | +441.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.6% | +45.6% | +439.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 4 | 19.2% | +105.4% | +386.4% |
| Average | 25 | — | +14.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02