CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Restaurants Investor Relations →
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) closed at $39.39 as of 2026-02-02, trading 9.9% below its 200-week moving average of $43.71. This places CMG in the deep value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -11.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, CMG is in overbought territory.
Over the past 997 weeks of data, CMG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.1%.
With a market cap of $52.1 billion, CMG is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 47.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 18.1x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 19.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMG would have grown to $3282, compared to $683 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 20.0% vs 10.5% for the index — confirming CMG as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 19.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Growth of $100: CMG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying CMG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +58.0% after 12 months (median +81.0%), compared to +8.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +149.8% vs +30.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CMG has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +51.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2008 | Apr 2009 | 40 | 49.2% | +9.6% | +2612.4% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 0.6% | +85.2% | +2530.9% |
| Dec 2015 | Aug 2018 | 137 | 49.7% | -21.3% | +297.8% |
| Aug 2018 | Sep 2018 | 1 | 0.7% | +76.4% | +314.5% |
| Sep 2018 | Oct 2018 | 6 | 9.1% | +78.6% | +321.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 14.5% | +78.1% | +330.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 3.5% | N/A | -7.4% |
| Aug 2025 | Ongoing | 24+ | 29.3% | Ongoing | -6.5% |
| Average | 27 | — | +51.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02