CMCSA
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Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) closed at $22.43 as of 2026-06-19, trading 30.4% below its 200-week moving average of $32.23. This places CMCSA in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -24.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, CMCSA is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.73 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMCSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +29.1%.
With a market cap of $80.1 billion, CMCSA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 20.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMCSA would have grown to $1610, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. CMCSA has returned 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 15% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CMCSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CMCSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying CMCSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.5% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +13.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.4% vs +34.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMCSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CMCSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CMCSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $23.88 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $25.96 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $28.43 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $31.41 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $35.10 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CMCSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +29.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1981 | Sep 1981 | 1 | 0.1% | N/A | +20260.8% |
| Feb 1982 | Apr 1982 | 10 | 20.7% | +51.9% | +19999.7% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 16 | 23.6% | +71.2% | +19999.7% |
| Sep 1982 | Sep 1982 | 1 | 0.0% | +69.5% | +20260.8% |
| Aug 1990 | Dec 1990 | 19 | 30.7% | +21.8% | +2836.8% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 5.6% | +54.7% | +2820.4% |
| Oct 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 6.0% | +175.6% | +2200.2% |
| Apr 1995 | Apr 1995 | 1 | 1.2% | +22.3% | +1412.5% |
| May 1996 | May 1996 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.3% | +1210.3% |
| Jul 1996 | Jan 1997 | 29 | 18.0% | +27.9% | +1224.9% |
| Feb 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 18.2% | +100.5% | +1136.1% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 8.5% | -25.1% | +216.4% |
| Mar 2002 | Jan 2004 | 95 | 46.4% | -17.0% | +211.8% |
| Feb 2004 | Dec 2004 | 45 | 17.9% | +5.5% | +258.0% |
| Sep 2005 | Apr 2006 | 31 | 11.3% | +21.1% | +269.2% |
| Oct 2007 | May 2008 | 31 | 23.0% | -37.8% | +236.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2010 | 110 | 44.8% | -33.0% | +227.2% |
| Aug 2010 | Oct 2010 | 10 | 9.6% | +19.6% | +266.4% |
| May 2018 | Jun 2018 | 2 | 2.1% | +37.4% | -6.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 9.5% | +69.9% | -14.1% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | +62.3% | -22.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Jul 2023 | 64 | 33.5% | +7.3% | -31.1% |
| Oct 2023 | Dec 2023 | 7 | 7.0% | +8.3% | -33.9% |
| Feb 2024 | Oct 2024 | 38 | 12.6% | -15.7% | -38.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 80+ | 30.4% | Ongoing | -36.3% |
| Average | 25 | — | +29.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CMCSA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Comcast Corporation (CMCSA) is trading 30.4% below its 200-week moving average of $32.23. The current price is $22.43.
What is CMCSA's 200-week moving average price?
Comcast Corporation's 200-week moving average is $32.23 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CMCSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
CMCSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +29.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CMCSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CMCSA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 5.0%. Return on equity is 20.9%. Price-to-book is 0.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CMCSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CMCSA would have grown to $1610, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CMCSA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19