CMC

Commercial Metals Company Materials - Steel Investor Relations →

NO
66.3% ABOVE
↑ Moving away Was 54.7% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $49.89
14-Week RSI 92

Commercial Metals Company (CMC) closed at $82.99 as of 2026-02-02, trading 66.3% above its 200-week moving average of $49.89. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 92, CMC is in overbought territory.

Over the past 2346 weeks of data, CMC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 32 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CMC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.1%.

With a market cap of $9.2 billion, CMC is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 10.5%. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.4% over the past three years.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CMC would have grown to $6377, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming CMC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.

Growth of $100: CMC vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After CMC Crosses Below the Line?

Across 23 historical episodes, buying CMC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.1% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +58.0% vs +24.8% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CMC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

CMC has crossed below its 200-week MA 32 times with an average 1-year return of +22.1% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Feb 1981Apr 1981813.2%-15.0%+37744.0%
May 1981Jul 198178.9%-31.2%+33276.3%
Sep 1981Oct 1981512.5%-5.0%+34476.9%
Nov 1981Nov 19825233.9%-6.8%+32819.0%
Jun 1985Jun 198511.1%+65.1%+25329.6%
Sep 1985Sep 198510.2%+36.4%+24547.1%
Nov 1986Nov 198612.6%+7.7%+20094.1%
Nov 1987Dec 198712.0%+57.9%+19102.5%
Dec 1990Jan 199134.0%+19.4%+11260.8%
Nov 1991Dec 199133.4%+38.2%+9743.3%
Jul 1998Jun 19994628.5%+21.0%+4153.6%
Sep 1999Sep 199910.5%-9.4%+4063.0%
Feb 2000Apr 2000616.4%-6.2%+4103.5%
May 2000Jul 2000108.9%+0.4%+4232.5%
Aug 2000Jun 20014223.0%+19.9%+4064.9%
Sep 2001Sep 200117.2%+50.6%+4341.5%
Jan 2003Apr 20031313.9%+107.7%+3601.0%
Sep 2008Aug 201220567.9%-21.3%+458.5%
Aug 2012Sep 201225.6%+22.8%+753.3%
Sep 2012Oct 201232.9%+32.9%+750.1%
Nov 2012Dec 201252.5%+43.9%+720.2%
Apr 2013Apr 201310.7%+46.2%+702.2%
Jan 2015Feb 2015411.0%-2.0%+639.6%
Aug 2015Oct 201579.8%+11.0%+593.7%
Oct 2015Feb 20161813.8%+11.2%+614.0%
Sep 2016Sep 201623.2%+25.1%+556.7%
Oct 2016Oct 201631.6%+39.5%+550.7%
Dec 2018Jun 20192824.6%+31.6%+444.8%
Jul 2019Sep 2019614.7%+27.4%+454.0%
Sep 2019Oct 201926.2%+23.7%+451.0%
Feb 2020Jun 20201628.7%+41.2%+399.4%
Mar 2025Apr 202548.8%N/A+105.3%
Average16+22.1%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02