CLW
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Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) closed at $16.79 as of 2026-06-19, trading 45.6% below its 200-week moving average of $30.85. This places CLW in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -43.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 867 weeks of data, CLW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 35 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CLW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.4%.
With a market cap of $271 million, CLW is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -7.3%. The stock trades at 0.3x book value.
Over the past 16.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CLW would have grown to $68, compared to $915 for the S&P 500. CLW has returned -2.3% annualized vs 14.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CLW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CLW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying CLW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.7% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +14.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 60% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -3.0% vs +26.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CLW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. CLW currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CLW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CLW has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +6.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 2015 | Apr 2016 | 32 | 30.5% | +39.2% | -61.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 7.6% | -20.1% | -70.0% |
| Feb 2017 | Jun 2020 | 175 | 65.3% | -32.7% | -70.0% |
| Aug 2020 | Sep 2020 | 4 | 9.1% | -7.8% | -50.6% |
| May 2021 | Aug 2021 | 12 | 7.7% | +10.6% | -43.7% |
| Feb 2022 | Feb 2022 | 1 | 0.1% | +30.8% | -41.9% |
| Mar 2022 | Apr 2022 | 5 | 11.3% | +13.8% | -41.6% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 13 | 10.3% | +40.7% | -47.7% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 6 | 6.1% | -16.8% | -51.6% |
| Aug 2024 | Ongoing | 98+ | 61.4% | Ongoing | -48.5% |
| Average | 35 | — | +6.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CLW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Clearwater Paper Corporation (CLW) is trading 45.6% below its 200-week moving average of $30.85. The current price is $16.79.
What is CLW's 200-week moving average price?
Clearwater Paper Corporation's 200-week moving average is $30.85 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CLW drops below its 200-week moving average?
CLW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 35 weeks on average.
Is CLW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CLW as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -7.3%. Price-to-book is 0.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CLW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 16.7 years, $100 invested in CLW would have grown to $68, compared to $915 for the S&P 500. That's -2.3% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. CLW has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19