CINF
Cincinnati Financial Corporation Financial Services - Insurance Investor Relations →
Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) closed at $158.43 as of 2026-03-20, trading 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $121.11. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2352 weeks of data, CINF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 11 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CINF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.2%.
With a market cap of $24.7 billion, CINF is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 24.9%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 16.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
CINF is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 224.00%. CINF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CINF would have grown to $2656, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. CINF has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 14.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CINF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CINF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying CINF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +30.6% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +19.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 85% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +44.2% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CINF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CINF has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +32.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1982 | Jan 1982 | 3 | 3.6% | +29.1% | +29994.2% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 2 | 1.6% | +58.7% | +29593.0% |
| May 1982 | Sep 1982 | 16 | 20.4% | +71.7% | +30616.9% |
| Sep 1987 | Sep 1987 | 1 | 0.9% | +14.7% | +10463.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Jul 1988 | 40 | 30.0% | +26.3% | +10780.7% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 1.0% | +43.4% | +9706.0% |
| Nov 1988 | Jan 1989 | 11 | 5.8% | +46.1% | +9497.7% |
| Nov 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 1.9% | +44.9% | +3100.0% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2000 | 9 | 12.8% | +27.2% | +1252.6% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 1 | 1.8% | +28.3% | +1191.8% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 6.9% | +16.8% | +973.1% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 12 | 5.4% | +21.9% | +969.7% |
| May 2003 | May 2003 | 1 | 0.7% | +25.0% | +959.8% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 1 | 4.4% | -24.3% | +704.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Nov 2007 | 3 | 3.8% | -41.1% | +673.0% |
| Nov 2007 | Sep 2010 | 148 | 49.4% | -23.4% | +663.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 2.6% | +54.9% | +858.3% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 2.1% | +61.5% | +877.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 9.5% | +47.4% | +146.9% |
| Apr 2020 | Jul 2020 | 13 | 37.3% | +43.6% | +134.1% |
| Aug 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.9% | +63.7% | +135.4% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 4 | 1.7% | +56.7% | +136.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 6 | 9.3% | +61.7% | +133.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 7.0% | +19.6% | +87.2% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 1.1% | +23.2% | +72.8% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 4 | 3.0% | +22.9% | +76.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.7% | +48.7% | +71.7% |
| Average | 11 | — | +32.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CINF below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cincinnati Financial Corporation (CINF) is currently 30.8% above its 200-week moving average of $121.11. It would need to fall to $121.11 to cross below the line.
What is CINF's 200-week moving average price?
Cincinnati Financial Corporation's 200-week moving average is $121.11 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CINF drops below its 200-week moving average?
CINF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 11 weeks on average.
Is CINF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CINF as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 24.9%. Return on equity is 16.0%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CINF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in CINF would have grown to $2656, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. CINF has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CINF pay a dividend?
Yes. Cincinnati Financial Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 224.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20