CIEN
Ciena Corporation Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Ciena Corporation (CIEN) closed at $428.22 as of 2026-06-19, trading 289.4% above its 200-week moving average of $109.97. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 312.5% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 61, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.71 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1484 weeks of data, CIEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CIEN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +49.5%.
With a market cap of $60.6 billion, CIEN is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.2%. Return on equity stands at 15.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 21.0x book value.
Over the past 28.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CIEN would have grown to $222, compared to $1241 for the S&P 500. CIEN has returned 2.8% annualized vs 9.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CIEN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CIEN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 36 historical episodes, buying CIEN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +53.0% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +66.1% vs +23.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CIEN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CIEN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CIEN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-04-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $423.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $595.44 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1002.61 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $3171.06 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CIEN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CIEN has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +49.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1998 | Apr 1998 | 9 | 13.9% | -46.6% | +191.3% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1999 | 55 | 82.1% | +3.2% | +291.5% |
| Sep 1999 | Nov 1999 | 6 | 16.3% | +529.8% | +219.1% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 12.9% | -76.3% | +78.6% |
| Jun 2001 | Feb 2006 | 244 | 93.4% | -89.5% | +52.4% |
| May 2006 | May 2006 | 3 | 3.1% | +8.8% | +1460.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 5 | 14.8% | +41.0% | +1460.6% |
| Aug 2006 | Sep 2006 | 2 | 4.7% | +34.6% | +1421.7% |
| Sep 2006 | Dec 2006 | 11 | 19.2% | +39.7% | +1471.4% |
| Feb 2007 | Mar 2007 | 4 | 7.4% | -4.7% | +1480.1% |
| Jan 2008 | Feb 2008 | 3 | 2.7% | -68.7% | +1627.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2010 | 130 | 78.8% | -58.6% | +1571.4% |
| Jun 2011 | Jan 2012 | 34 | 40.1% | -22.8% | +2149.1% |
| Feb 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 3.7% | +2.4% | +2857.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 5 | 20.1% | +10.6% | +3119.7% |
| Jul 2012 | Jul 2012 | 1 | 0.5% | +50.9% | +2915.6% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 1 | 5.8% | +45.7% | +3032.6% |
| Sep 2012 | Dec 2012 | 11 | 15.8% | +78.0% | +2915.6% |
| Jan 2013 | Jan 2013 | 1 | 3.9% | +56.7% | +2823.0% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 4.1% | +65.7% | +2787.5% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 8 | 6.6% | +44.0% | +2751.0% |
| Sep 2014 | Dec 2014 | 12 | 21.6% | +20.2% | +2388.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 8.8% | +33.2% | +2256.7% |
| Feb 2016 | May 2016 | 13 | 20.3% | +51.0% | +2378.1% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 6.9% | +38.3% | +2140.8% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 3.8% | +32.5% | +2131.5% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 5.7% | +10.1% | +2048.6% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.5% | +6.3% | +1994.0% |
| Oct 2017 | Jan 2018 | 10 | 6.7% | +41.6% | +1946.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 8.4% | -8.6% | +847.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Dec 2022 | 16 | 19.0% | +9.6% | +868.4% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 7 | 7.3% | +16.9% | +782.2% |
| Apr 2023 | Jan 2024 | 39 | 19.2% | -7.1% | +813.2% |
| Mar 2024 | Aug 2024 | 22 | 15.1% | +27.6% | +756.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.4% | +128.1% | +737.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 1.9% | +736.9% | +700.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +49.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CIEN below its 200-week moving average?
No. Ciena Corporation (CIEN) is currently 289.4% above its 200-week moving average of $109.97. It would need to fall to $109.97 to cross below the line.
What is CIEN's 200-week moving average price?
Ciena Corporation's 200-week moving average is $109.97 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CIEN drops below its 200-week moving average?
CIEN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +49.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is CIEN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CIEN as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 61. Free cash flow yield is 1.2%. Return on equity is 15.5%. Price-to-book is 21.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CIEN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.5 years, $100 invested in CIEN would have grown to $222, compared to $1241 for the S&P 500. That's 2.8% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. CIEN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19