CHRW
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. Industrials - Integrated Freight & Logistics Investor Relations →
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) closed at $147.73 as of 2026-07-31, trading 36.9% above its 200-week moving average of $107.93. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 73.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1454 weeks of data, CHRW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHRW at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.3%.
With a market cap of $17.4 billion, CHRW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 37.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 9.5x book value.
CHRW is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 171.00%.
Over the past 27.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHRW would have grown to $5185, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming CHRW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHRW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHRW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying CHRW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +21.7% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +27.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +48.4% vs +48.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHRW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHRW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHRW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $161.34 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $170.36 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $180.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $191.80 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $204.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHRW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHRW has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +24.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1998 | Nov 1998 | 6 | 29.8% | +63.3% | +4733.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 2 | 5.9% | +44.0% | +431.5% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2009 | 1 | 2.0% | +33.5% | +399.8% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 5 | 15.5% | +22.0% | +389.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 0.9% | +1.3% | +248.7% |
| May 2012 | Jul 2012 | 7 | 4.4% | +1.4% | +249.5% |
| Jul 2012 | Oct 2012 | 15 | 10.9% | +9.0% | +259.3% |
| Nov 2012 | Nov 2012 | 1 | 2.3% | +3.9% | +244.0% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 1 | 0.4% | -2.1% | +235.8% |
| Feb 2013 | Jun 2014 | 69 | 17.1% | -10.1% | +238.8% |
| Oct 2019 | Dec 2019 | 8 | 3.5% | +21.4% | +131.2% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2020 | 16 | 19.2% | +21.3% | +137.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +27.7% | +120.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Jul 2024 | 48 | 22.1% | +19.9% | +78.1% |
| Apr 2025 | May 2025 | 3 | 2.2% | +107.8% | +68.3% |
| Average | 12 | — | +24.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHRW below its 200-week moving average?
No. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (CHRW) is currently 36.9% above its 200-week moving average of $107.93. It would need to fall to $107.93 to cross below the line.
What is CHRW's 200-week moving average price?
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $107.93 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHRW drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHRW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is CHRW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHRW as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 37.1%. Price-to-book is 9.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHRW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.9 years, $100 invested in CHRW would have grown to $5185, compared to $1188 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. CHRW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHRW pay a dividend?
Yes. C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 171.00%. It is also a Dividend Aristocrat, meaning it has raised its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31