CHRD
Chord Energy Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) closed at $140.38 as of 2026-07-31, trading 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $120.85. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 14.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 53, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 793 weeks of data, CHRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 55 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -15.7%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $7.9 billion, CHRD is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.7%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -0.8%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 36.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 15.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHRD would have grown to $842, compared to $725 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.0% vs 13.9% for the index — confirming CHRD as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -20.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHRD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHRD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying CHRD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -14.0% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +16.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -0.2% vs +32.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHRD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHRD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHRD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $98.22 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $121.25 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $158.39 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $228.31 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $408.78 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHRD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHRD has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +-15.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 11.2% | +8.5% | +854.2% |
| May 2012 | Aug 2012 | 12 | 13.0% | +56.3% | +827.9% |
| Oct 2014 | Jun 2018 | 193 | 85.2% | -59.3% | +584.9% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2020 | 108 | 98.5% | -71.3% | +2144.2% |
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2024 | 2 | 5.1% | -14.2% | +36.2% |
| Jan 2025 | Mar 2026 | 58 | 27.9% | -14.2% | +28.5% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 3 | 5.8% | N/A | +20.4% |
| Average | 55 | — | +-15.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHRD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Chord Energy Corporation (CHRD) is currently 16.2% above its 200-week moving average of $120.85. It would need to fall to $120.85 to cross below the line.
What is CHRD's 200-week moving average price?
Chord Energy Corporation's 200-week moving average is $120.85 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHRD drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHRD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -15.7%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 55 weeks on average.
Is CHRD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHRD as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 53. Free cash flow yield is 5.7%. Return on equity is -0.8%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHRD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 15.2 years, $100 invested in CHRD would have grown to $842, compared to $725 for the S&P 500. That's 15.0% annualized vs 13.9% for the index. CHRD has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHRD pay a dividend?
Yes. Chord Energy Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 370.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31