CHH
Choice Hotels International Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Hotels Investor Relations →
Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) closed at $115.00 as of 2026-06-19, trading 2.6% below its 200-week moving average of $118.05. This places CHH in the below line zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -7.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1500 weeks of data, CHH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.0%.
With a market cap of $5.2 billion, CHH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 940.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 37.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHH would have grown to $2447, compared to $1303 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming CHH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CHH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +14.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.7% vs +26.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $100.99 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $106.98 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $113.72 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $121.37 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $130.12 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHH has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +25.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1998 | Apr 1999 | 45 | 28.0% | +14.3% | +2896.1% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 4.8% | -33.0% | +2817.9% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 3.2% | -18.2% | +2856.5% |
| Apr 2000 | Jan 2001 | 37 | 43.9% | +9.0% | +3080.7% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 8 | 18.2% | +60.1% | +2961.7% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 4 | 16.0% | +93.5% | +3424.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Feb 2010 | 116 | 41.8% | -25.8% | +469.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 6.0% | +18.0% | +523.9% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 10.5% | +37.5% | +493.7% |
| Aug 2012 | Aug 2012 | 1 | 1.8% | +69.9% | +462.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 4.1% | +31.8% | +202.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 1 | 0.8% | +44.4% | +179.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Jun 2016 | 3 | 1.5% | +42.5% | +176.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 7 | 5.5% | +32.6% | +169.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 24.8% | +91.5% | +109.4% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +58.4% | +69.7% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 2.1% | +29.3% | +6.7% |
| Nov 2023 | Jan 2024 | 5 | 2.5% | +35.1% | +4.3% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 4.9% | +34.5% | +4.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +7.5% | +0.8% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 7 | 4.0% | +6.5% | +0.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 0.9% | -15.0% | -5.6% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | -12.9% | -6.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.6% | -11.0% | -6.5% |
| Aug 2025 | Apr 2026 | 36 | 29.4% | N/A | -3.9% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 8+ | 14.7% | Ongoing | +14.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +25.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) is trading 2.6% below its 200-week moving average of $118.05. The current price is $115.00.
What is CHH's 200-week moving average price?
Choice Hotels International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $118.05 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHH drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +25.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is CHH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 65. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 940.8%. Price-to-book is 37.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in CHH would have grown to $2447, compared to $1303 for the S&P 500. That's 11.7% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. CHH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19