CHH
Choice Hotels International Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Hotels Investor Relations →
Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) closed at $96.85 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.4% below its 200-week moving average of $117.33. This places CHH in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -17.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 34, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.01 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1513 weeks of data, CHH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.0%.
With a market cap of $4.4 billion, CHH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.8%. Return on equity stands at 566.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 30.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 11.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 29.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHH would have grown to $2066, compared to $1327 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming CHH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying CHH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +24.5% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +49.8% vs +21.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $97.66 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $104.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $112.90 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $122.46 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $133.78 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.97 | $2.02 | +2.8% |
| 2026-04-30 | $1.32 | $1.07 | -18.8% |
| 2026-02-19 | $1.54 | $1.60 | +3.7% |
| 2025-11-05 | $2.20 | $2.10 | -4.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHH has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +22.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1998 | Apr 1999 | 45 | 28.1% | +14.3% | +2429.8% |
| Oct 1999 | Oct 1999 | 2 | 5.0% | -33.0% | +2363.8% |
| Mar 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 3.3% | -18.2% | +2396.4% |
| Apr 2000 | Jan 2001 | 37 | 43.9% | +9.0% | +2585.7% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 0.0% | +51.2% | +2403.0% |
| Feb 2001 | Apr 2001 | 8 | 18.3% | +60.1% | +2485.2% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 4 | 16.1% | +93.5% | +2876.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Feb 2010 | 116 | 41.9% | -25.8% | +381.2% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 5.5% | +17.9% | +423.6% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 10.6% | +37.5% | +401.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 4 | 4.2% | +31.8% | +155.4% |
| May 2016 | Jun 2016 | 6 | 1.5% | +44.4% | +136.0% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 7 | 5.5% | +32.6% | +127.3% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 24.5% | +91.5% | +76.8% |
| Apr 2020 | May 2020 | 4 | 1.8% | +58.4% | +43.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 2.1% | +29.3% | -9.9% |
| Nov 2023 | Dec 2023 | 3 | 2.5% | +35.1% | -12.0% |
| Feb 2024 | Mar 2024 | 2 | 4.9% | +34.5% | -12.0% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.4% | +7.5% | -14.9% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 7 | 4.0% | +6.5% | -15.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 0.7% | -14.9% | -20.5% |
| May 2025 | May 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | -12.9% | -20.6% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 2 | 1.6% | -11.0% | -21.1% |
| Aug 2025 | Apr 2026 | 36 | 29.4% | -10.7% | -18.9% |
| Apr 2026 | Ongoing | 21+ | 17.6% | Ongoing | -3.6% |
| Average | 13 | — | +22.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Choice Hotels International Inc. (CHH) is trading 17.4% below its 200-week moving average of $117.33. The current price is $96.85.
What is CHH's 200-week moving average price?
Choice Hotels International Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $117.33 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHH drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 13 weeks on average.
Is CHH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHH as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 34. Free cash flow yield is 4.8%. Return on equity is 566.4%. Price-to-book is 30.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.1 years, $100 invested in CHH would have grown to $2066, compared to $1327 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. CHH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHH pay a dividend?
Yes. Choice Hotels International Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 119.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18