CHEF
The Chefs' Warehouse Inc. Consumer Staples - Food Distribution Investor Relations →
The Chefs' Warehouse Inc. (CHEF) closed at $95.40 as of 2026-06-19, trading 109.1% above its 200-week moving average of $45.61. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 100.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, CHEF is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 729 weeks of data, CHEF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHEF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.7%.
With a market cap of $3.9 billion, CHEF is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 13.8%. The stock trades at 6.4x book value.
Share count has increased 5.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 14 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHEF would have grown to $692, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.8% vs 14.8% for the index — confirming CHEF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHEF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHEF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CHEF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +27.4% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.1% vs +28.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHEF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHEF would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHEF's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $50.62 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $56.57 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.12 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $73.98 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $87.42 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHEF's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHEF has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +19.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2012 | Feb 2013 | 31 | 21.9% | +21.4% | +471.3% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 2 | 1.9% | +17.0% | +462.5% |
| Apr 2014 | Jun 2014 | 6 | 5.9% | +1.1% | +406.4% |
| Jul 2014 | Dec 2014 | 23 | 16.6% | +7.9% | +421.0% |
| Apr 2015 | May 2015 | 1 | 0.4% | +1.2% | +401.1% |
| May 2015 | Jun 2015 | 2 | 3.0% | -16.3% | +408.8% |
| Jul 2015 | Mar 2016 | 33 | 31.4% | -12.8% | +406.9% |
| Apr 2016 | Sep 2017 | 74 | 42.6% | -26.5% | +406.1% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 3.0% | +108.7% | +467.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Dec 2020 | 42 | 77.7% | +96.6% | +445.8% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 3.9% | +41.6% | +251.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.3% | +26.9% | +247.9% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +29.6% | +232.6% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 2.1% | +9.8% | +234.7% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 1 | 2.0% | -26.9% | +229.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 37.8% | +35.1% | +235.3% |
| Average | 15 | — | +19.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHEF below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Chefs' Warehouse Inc. (CHEF) is currently 109.1% above its 200-week moving average of $45.61. It would need to fall to $45.61 to cross below the line.
What is CHEF's 200-week moving average price?
The Chefs' Warehouse Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $45.61 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHEF drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHEF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is CHEF a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHEF as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 13.8%. Price-to-book is 6.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHEF compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 14 years, $100 invested in CHEF would have grown to $692, compared to $691 for the S&P 500. That's 14.8% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. CHEF has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19