CHE
Chemed Corporation Healthcare - Medical Care Facilities Investor Relations →
Chemed Corporation (CHE) closed at $436.27 as of 2026-06-19, trading 15.3% below its 200-week moving average of $514.96. This places CHE in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -18.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 60, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2724 weeks of data, CHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.2%.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, CHE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 25.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.8% over the past three years. CHE passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHE would have grown to $5691, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.8% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CHE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8.8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying CHE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +15.3% after 12 months (median +8.0%), compared to +6.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +33.6% vs +10.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $341.53 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $365.84 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $393.88 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $426.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $465.19 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHE has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +16.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1974 | Jul 1975 | 65 | 71.7% | -51.1% | +19787.4% |
| Jul 1975 | Jan 1976 | 23 | 27.6% | +24.7% | +23873.9% |
| May 1976 | Jun 1976 | 3 | 3.9% | +37.2% | +22337.1% |
| Oct 1976 | Nov 1976 | 3 | 2.2% | +23.8% | +21776.1% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 0.2% | +93.1% | +12053.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.4% | +13.4% | +8002.3% |
| Sep 1984 | Jan 1985 | 18 | 7.7% | +9.4% | +8116.4% |
| Apr 1985 | Jun 1985 | 8 | 3.4% | +38.1% | +7747.9% |
| Aug 1985 | Aug 1985 | 1 | 0.1% | +13.6% | +7347.2% |
| Sep 1985 | Nov 1985 | 8 | 8.6% | +3.4% | +7411.1% |
| Dec 1985 | Dec 1985 | 1 | 0.3% | +21.8% | +7222.6% |
| Aug 1986 | Aug 1986 | 1 | 0.3% | +36.4% | +6683.3% |
| Sep 1986 | Sep 1986 | 2 | 7.1% | +35.7% | +6928.5% |
| Oct 1986 | Oct 1986 | 1 | 0.5% | +17.8% | +6683.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 10 | 16.8% | +9.8% | +7072.5% |
| May 1988 | Sep 1988 | 20 | 11.0% | +6.3% | +6454.7% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 13 | 10.9% | +12.9% | +6430.2% |
| Jan 1989 | Feb 1989 | 2 | 2.1% | +3.7% | +6386.5% |
| Mar 1989 | Mar 1989 | 1 | 0.8% | +0.2% | +6321.6% |
| Jan 1990 | Feb 1990 | 1 | 2.2% | -39.5% | +6155.1% |
| Mar 1990 | Nov 1991 | 88 | 41.2% | -21.6% | +6308.2% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 19 | 21.1% | +7.1% | +3441.4% |
| Jan 1999 | May 1999 | 16 | 18.7% | +4.6% | +3509.4% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 2 | 0.6% | +1.6% | +3349.7% |
| Aug 1999 | May 2000 | 41 | 20.6% | +1.4% | +3419.0% |
| Jun 2000 | Sep 2000 | 12 | 7.7% | +17.0% | +3512.2% |
| Jul 2001 | Aug 2001 | 2 | 10.4% | +22.6% | +3635.9% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 13 | 12.1% | +14.2% | +3364.2% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 2.3% | +27.0% | +3293.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Sep 2002 | 1 | 0.5% | +24.4% | +3203.4% |
| Oct 2002 | Oct 2002 | 1 | 1.4% | +25.6% | +3235.9% |
| Sep 2006 | Oct 2006 | 1 | 0.3% | +93.6% | +1422.6% |
| Mar 2008 | Oct 2009 | 83 | 30.3% | -13.0% | +1022.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 2.2% | +31.3% | +965.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 4 | 2.8% | +19.4% | +1.3% |
| Jun 2025 | Ongoing | 51+ | 29.0% | Ongoing | -7.3% |
| Average | 14 | — | +16.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHE below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Chemed Corporation (CHE) is trading 15.3% below its 200-week moving average of $514.96. The current price is $436.27.
What is CHE's 200-week moving average price?
Chemed Corporation's 200-week moving average is $514.96 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHE drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is CHE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHE as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 60. Free cash flow yield is 6.0%. Return on equity is 25.6%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CHE would have grown to $5691, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 12.8% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CHE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHE pay a dividend?
Yes. Chemed Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 55.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19