CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Gambling Investor Relations →
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) closed at $84.30 as of 2026-07-31, trading 26.6% below its 200-week moving average of $114.91. This places CHDN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -24.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 25, CHDN is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1691 weeks of data, CHDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHDN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $5.9 billion, CHDN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.4%. Return on equity stands at 33.8%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHDN would have grown to $3187, compared to $2960 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming CHDN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 57% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHDN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHDN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CHDN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.1% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +4.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.8% vs +5.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHDN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CHDN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CHDN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $71.31 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $76.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $83.65 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $91.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $101.16 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CHDN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CHDN has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1994 | Sep 1997 | 185 | 27.9% | -4.3% | +2975.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 6.6% | +12.6% | +2811.3% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 3.3% | +24.3% | +2756.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2000 | 7 | 12.5% | +30.3% | +2658.5% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.4% | +20.1% | +2666.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 9.1% | +29.1% | +2815.3% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 7.9% | +39.3% | +2840.3% |
| May 2000 | Sep 2000 | 18 | 8.3% | +40.8% | +2840.3% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 5 | 6.0% | +47.6% | +2276.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 15 | 15.1% | +24.7% | +1682.0% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 13 | 4.0% | +44.8% | +1479.1% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 19.7% | -10.9% | +1294.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 113 | 42.6% | -11.2% | +1282.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +58.0% | +1368.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.2% | +231.4% | +136.5% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 76+ | 27.8% | Ongoing | -27.6% |
| Average | 29 | — | +38.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHDN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is trading 26.6% below its 200-week moving average of $114.91. The current price is $84.30.
What is CHDN's 200-week moving average price?
Churchill Downs Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $114.91 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHDN drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is CHDN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHDN as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 25 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 2.4%. Return on equity is 33.8%. Price-to-book is 5.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHDN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.4 years, $100 invested in CHDN would have grown to $3187, compared to $2960 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. CHDN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHDN pay a dividend?
Yes. Churchill Downs Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 52.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31