CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Gambling Investor Relations →
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) closed at $93.55 as of 2026-02-02, trading 19.5% below its 200-week moving average of $116.22. This places CHDN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -15.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 44, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1666 weeks of data, CHDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHDN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $6.6 billion, CHDN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 37.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.3x book value.
Over the past 32 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHDN would have grown to $3536, compared to $2738 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.8% vs 10.9% for the index — confirming CHDN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,298,940. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while CHDN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -2.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: CHDN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHDN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CHDN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.2% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +4.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.8% vs +5.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHDN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CHDN has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1994 | Sep 1997 | 185 | 27.8% | -4.3% | +3312.8% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 6.6% | +12.6% | +3130.8% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 3.3% | +24.3% | +3069.3% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2000 | 7 | 12.4% | +30.3% | +2961.2% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.3% | +20.1% | +2969.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 9.1% | +29.1% | +3135.2% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 7.8% | +39.3% | +3162.9% |
| May 2000 | Sep 2000 | 18 | 8.3% | +40.8% | +3162.9% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 5 | 5.9% | +47.6% | +2537.5% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 15 | 15.0% | +24.7% | +1877.5% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 13 | 4.0% | +44.8% | +1652.4% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 19.7% | -10.9% | +1447.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 113 | 42.5% | -11.2% | +1434.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +58.0% | +1529.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.2% | +231.4% | +162.4% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 51+ | 25.2% | Ongoing | -19.7% |
| Average | 27 | — | +38.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02