CHDN
Churchill Downs Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Gambling Investor Relations →
Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) closed at $83.73 as of 2026-03-20, trading 27.8% below its 200-week moving average of $115.91. This places CHDN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -25.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 15, CHDN is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.22 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1672 weeks of data, CHDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CHDN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +38.4%.
With a market cap of $5.8 billion, CHDN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at 35.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CHDN would have grown to $3165, compared to $2578 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.4% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming CHDN as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $1,298,940. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects. Notably, these purchases occurred while CHDN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 57% compound annual rate, with 2 consecutive years of positive cash generation. A business generating more cash every year while trading below its 200-week moving average is exactly the kind of disconnect value investors look for.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CHDN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CHDN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CHDN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.1% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +4.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.8% vs +5.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CHDN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CHDN has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +38.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1994 | Sep 1997 | 185 | 27.8% | -4.3% | +2954.6% |
| Sep 1999 | Oct 1999 | 5 | 6.6% | +12.6% | +2791.7% |
| Nov 1999 | Nov 1999 | 1 | 3.3% | +24.3% | +2736.7% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2000 | 7 | 12.4% | +30.3% | +2639.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.3% | +20.1% | +2647.7% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 9.1% | +29.1% | +2795.6% |
| Apr 2000 | Apr 2000 | 2 | 7.8% | +39.3% | +2820.4% |
| May 2000 | Sep 2000 | 18 | 8.3% | +40.8% | +2820.4% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 5 | 5.9% | +47.6% | +2260.6% |
| Sep 2005 | Jan 2006 | 15 | 15.0% | +24.7% | +1669.9% |
| Jun 2006 | Sep 2006 | 13 | 4.0% | +44.8% | +1468.5% |
| May 2008 | Aug 2008 | 12 | 19.7% | -10.9% | +1285.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Nov 2010 | 113 | 42.5% | -11.2% | +1273.6% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.9% | +58.0% | +1358.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 12.2% | +231.4% | +134.9% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 57+ | 27.8% | Ongoing | -28.1% |
| Average | 28 | — | +38.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CHDN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) is trading 27.8% below its 200-week moving average of $115.91. The current price is $83.73.
What is CHDN's 200-week moving average price?
Churchill Downs Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $115.91 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CHDN drops below its 200-week moving average?
CHDN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +38.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is CHDN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CHDN as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 15 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is 35.7%. Price-to-book is 5.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CHDN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.1 years, $100 invested in CHDN would have grown to $3165, compared to $2578 for the S&P 500. That's 11.4% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CHDN has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CHDN pay a dividend?
Yes. Churchill Downs Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 52.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20