CG
The Carlyle Group Inc. Financial Services - Asset Management Investor Relations →
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) closed at $46.02 as of 2026-07-31, trading 11.1% above its 200-week moving average of $41.41. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 695 weeks of data, CG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.3%.
Return on equity stands at 9.4%. The stock trades at 3.1x book value.
Over the past 13.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CG would have grown to $287, compared to $586 for the S&P 500. CG has returned 8.2% annualized vs 14.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying CG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +19.8% after 12 months (median +33.0%), compared to +16.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +21.4% vs +31.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. CG currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CG has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +20.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 3 | 4.1% | +45.6% | +269.0% |
| Aug 2013 | Aug 2013 | 1 | 1.5% | +33.6% | +258.1% |
| Sep 2013 | Sep 2013 | 3 | 4.0% | +37.4% | +267.4% |
| Oct 2014 | Nov 2014 | 1 | 0.5% | -24.5% | +214.3% |
| Dec 2014 | Feb 2015 | 9 | 10.4% | -32.1% | +227.6% |
| Feb 2015 | Mar 2015 | 1 | 1.2% | -35.6% | +216.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2017 | 103 | 45.7% | -27.6% | +209.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 5 | 7.9% | +94.1% | +270.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Jan 2023 | 17 | 19.5% | +13.6% | +69.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 18 | 19.1% | +63.3% | +69.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Nov 2023 | 17 | 16.8% | +42.7% | +56.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 5.7% | +33.1% | +32.6% |
| Average | 15 | — | +20.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CG below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) is currently 11.1% above its 200-week moving average of $41.41. It would need to fall to $41.41 to cross below the line.
What is CG's 200-week moving average price?
The Carlyle Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $41.41 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is CG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CG as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Return on equity is 9.4%. Price-to-book is 3.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.3 years, $100 invested in CG would have grown to $287, compared to $586 for the S&P 500. That's 8.2% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. CG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CG pay a dividend?
Yes. The Carlyle Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 309.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31