CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) closed at $166.34 as of 2026-07-31, trading 44.1% above its 200-week moving average of $115.40. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 42.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, CFR is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, CFR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CFR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.1%.
With a market cap of $10.3 billion, CFR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.4x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CFR would have grown to $4674, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CFR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -41% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CFR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CFR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 26 historical episodes, buying CFR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +18.7% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.8% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CFR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CFR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CFR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $132.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $136.54 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $140.96 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.67 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $150.70 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CFR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CFR has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +19.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1982 | Jul 1982 | 3 | 2.7% | +22.6% | +7746.6% |
| Aug 1982 | Nov 1982 | 12 | 8.4% | +58.5% | +7937.9% |
| Dec 1982 | Dec 1982 | 1 | 0.2% | +42.9% | +7746.6% |
| Mar 1983 | Apr 1983 | 4 | 3.3% | +56.0% | +7746.6% |
| May 1983 | Jun 1983 | 6 | 6.8% | +62.7% | +7841.1% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 6 | 10.9% | -7.0% | +6949.3% |
| Mar 1985 | Feb 1989 | 206 | 69.3% | -26.0% | +6237.6% |
| Oct 1989 | Oct 1989 | 1 | 11.9% | -45.3% | +13776.0% |
| Nov 1989 | Aug 1991 | 90 | 48.8% | -47.5% | +13215.4% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 11.0% | +82.3% | +1577.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 6 | 11.5% | +26.7% | +1172.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 6.1% | +10.4% | +521.7% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.6% | -3.8% | +492.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.0% | +0.8% | +472.7% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 2.1% | +0.7% | +482.4% |
| Dec 2008 | Aug 2009 | 34 | 26.1% | +8.9% | +510.7% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 2.4% | +8.8% | +461.1% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 8 | 5.0% | +12.6% | +468.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 7.6% | +27.2% | +462.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.6% | +23.0% | +446.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 5 | 2.3% | +23.6% | +270.1% |
| Dec 2015 | May 2016 | 24 | 30.2% | +42.3% | +254.5% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 2.7% | +57.3% | +251.6% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 3.6% | -7.7% | +142.8% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.6% | -20.3% | +141.6% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 39.8% | +37.8% | +156.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 0.4% | +48.6% | +126.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 1.9% | +10.2% | +84.6% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 5.2% | +7.5% | +80.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 16.6% | +17.6% | +89.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 1.4% | +38.2% | +72.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 11 | 10.9% | +22.0% | +68.3% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 2.6% | +20.2% | +67.2% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.6% | +23.6% | +64.1% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 5.0% | +33.6% | +61.6% |
| Average | 15 | — | +19.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) is currently 44.1% above its 200-week moving average of $115.40. It would need to fall to $115.40 to cross below the line.
What is CFR's 200-week moving average price?
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $115.40 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CFR drops below its 200-week moving average?
CFR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is CFR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CFR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Return on equity is 15.5%. Price-to-book is 2.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CFR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CFR would have grown to $4674, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 12.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CFR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CFR pay a dividend?
Yes. Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 247.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31