CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) closed at $145.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $114.14. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 29.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, CFR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CFR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.7%.
With a market cap of $9.1 billion, CFR is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.1x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CFR would have grown to $4093, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.7% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CFR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -41% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CFR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CFR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying CFR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.0% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +13.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +41.6% vs +30.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CFR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CFR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CFR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $135.36 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $137.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $139.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $141.26 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $143.35 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CFR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CFR has crossed below its 200-week MA 34 times with an average 1-year return of +19.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1982 | Jul 1982 | 3 | 2.7% | +22.6% | +6771.0% |
| Aug 1982 | Nov 1982 | 12 | 8.4% | +58.5% | +6938.6% |
| Dec 1982 | Dec 1982 | 1 | 0.2% | +42.9% | +6771.0% |
| Mar 1983 | Apr 1983 | 4 | 3.3% | +56.0% | +6771.0% |
| May 1983 | Jun 1983 | 6 | 6.8% | +62.7% | +6853.8% |
| Dec 1984 | Jan 1985 | 6 | 10.9% | -7.0% | +6072.9% |
| Mar 1985 | Feb 1989 | 206 | 69.3% | -26.0% | +5449.7% |
| Oct 1989 | Oct 1989 | 1 | 11.9% | -45.3% | +12050.9% |
| Nov 1989 | Aug 1991 | 90 | 48.8% | -47.5% | +11559.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 4 | 11.0% | +82.3% | +1369.1% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 6 | 11.5% | +26.7% | +1014.0% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 3 | 6.0% | +10.4% | +444.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 1.6% | -3.8% | +419.0% |
| Nov 2008 | Nov 2008 | 1 | 2.0% | +0.7% | +410.0% |
| Dec 2008 | Aug 2009 | 34 | 26.1% | +8.9% | +434.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 3 | 2.3% | +9.7% | +395.6% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 8 | 5.1% | +12.6% | +397.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 10 | 7.6% | +27.2% | +392.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 4.5% | +23.0% | +378.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 5 | 2.2% | +22.7% | +224.1% |
| Dec 2015 | May 2016 | 23 | 30.1% | +42.3% | +210.4% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 3 | 2.7% | +57.3% | +207.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 4 | 3.5% | -7.7% | +112.6% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 1 | 0.5% | -20.3% | +111.5% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 39 | 39.8% | +38.0% | +126.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 1 | 0.3% | +48.6% | +98.7% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 1 | 1.8% | +10.2% | +61.7% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 5.2% | +7.5% | +58.4% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 17 | 16.5% | +17.6% | +65.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 2 | 1.3% | +38.2% | +51.1% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 11 | 10.8% | +22.0% | +47.4% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 2.5% | +20.2% | +46.4% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.5% | +23.6% | +43.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 4.9% | +33.6% | +41.5% |
| Average | 15 | — | +19.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc. (CFR) is currently 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $114.14. It would need to fall to $114.14 to cross below the line.
What is CFR's 200-week moving average price?
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $114.14 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CFR drops below its 200-week moving average?
CFR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 34 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is CFR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CFR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Return on equity is 15.5%. Price-to-book is 2.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CFR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CFR would have grown to $4093, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CFR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19