CFG
Citizens Financial Group Inc. Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG) closed at $67.08 as of 2026-06-19, trading 72.1% above its 200-week moving average of $38.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 74.3% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, CFG is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.99 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 564 weeks of data, CFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CFG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +22.8%.
With a market cap of $28.4 billion, CFG is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 7.7%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 12.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 10.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CFG would have grown to $410, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. CFG has returned 13.8% annualized vs 14.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -20.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CFG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CFG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying CFG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +28.8% after 12 months (median +31.0%), compared to +21.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 80% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +61.4% vs +49.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CFG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CFG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CFG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $58.16 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $60.27 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $62.55 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $65.01 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $67.67 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CFG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CFG has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +22.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2015 | 9 | 6.4% | +4.5% | +310.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Aug 2016 | 32 | 22.7% | +53.8% | +313.4% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 7.4% | +37.7% | +205.9% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 0.3% | -19.7% | +183.4% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 38 | 49.3% | +45.2% | +178.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 2 | 1.2% | -19.1% | +129.1% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2024 | 54 | 32.8% | +5.6% | +124.5% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 2.5% | +9.4% | +120.1% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 0.4% | +26.1% | +111.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 3.5% | +84.5% | +104.4% |
| Average | 15 | — | +22.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CFG below its 200-week moving average?
No. Citizens Financial Group Inc. (CFG) is currently 72.1% above its 200-week moving average of $38.99. It would need to fall to $38.99 to cross below the line.
What is CFG's 200-week moving average price?
Citizens Financial Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CFG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CFG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +22.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is CFG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CFG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Return on equity is 7.7%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CFG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 10.9 years, $100 invested in CFG would have grown to $410, compared to $453 for the S&P 500. That's 13.8% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. CFG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CFG pay a dividend?
Yes. Citizens Financial Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 274.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19