CF
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Materials - Fertilizers Investor Relations →
CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) closed at $92.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 14.5% above its 200-week moving average of $80.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 15.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1021 weeks of data, CF has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CF at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +77.8%.
With a market cap of $15.0 billion, CF is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 18.2% over the past three years. CF passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 19.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CF would have grown to $4353, compared to $776 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.2% vs 11.0% for the index — confirming CF as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: CF vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CF Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying CF when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +74.1% after 12 months (median +69.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 88% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +201.1% vs +24.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CF crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CF has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +77.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 6 | 12.2% | +361.7% | +4744.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 4 | 21.9% | +47.8% | +1079.6% |
| Nov 2008 | Feb 2009 | 15 | 17.8% | +47.1% | +1112.0% |
| May 2010 | Jul 2010 | 10 | 19.1% | +88.8% | +801.3% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2017 | 107 | 49.2% | -30.9% | +180.5% |
| Feb 2018 | Feb 2018 | 1 | 1.9% | +14.4% | +201.3% |
| Mar 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 2.9% | +8.5% | +204.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 38.7% | +84.8% | +284.9% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 5.9% | N/A | +29.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Jan 2026 | 7 | 4.4% | N/A | +18.0% |
| Average | 19 | — | +77.8% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02