CENX
Century Aluminum Company Materials - Aluminum Investor Relations →
Century Aluminum Company (CENX) closed at $51.71 as of 2026-06-19, trading 161.0% above its 200-week moving average of $19.81. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 212.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.03 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1529 weeks of data, CENX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CENX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.1%.
With a market cap of $5.1 billion, CENX is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 32.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
Share count has increased 7.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 29.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CENX would have grown to $327, compared to $1644 for the S&P 500. CENX has returned 4.1% annualized vs 10.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CENX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CENX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying CENX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.0% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +7.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.6% vs +18.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CENX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CENX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CENX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $41.69 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $63.10 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $129.74 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | N/A | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CENX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CENX has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +2.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1997 | Jul 1997 | 4 | 7.6% | +0.5% | +277.9% |
| Sep 1997 | Sep 1997 | 2 | 7.0% | -30.2% | +264.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Feb 1998 | 16 | 20.8% | -41.6% | +261.7% |
| Mar 1998 | Apr 1998 | 5 | 6.6% | -49.6% | +287.2% |
| May 1998 | Dec 1999 | 84 | 64.3% | -40.5% | +301.1% |
| Jan 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 0.3% | +29.0% | +326.7% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 7 | 16.7% | +90.9% | +411.0% |
| Aug 2000 | Aug 2000 | 2 | 6.1% | +29.8% | +357.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Jan 2001 | 15 | 42.2% | -1.5% | +383.7% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 10 | 35.6% | -6.8% | +581.6% |
| Feb 2002 | Feb 2002 | 3 | 4.3% | -50.6% | +348.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Sep 2003 | 63 | 51.5% | -20.3% | +382.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2014 | 280 | 97.2% | -76.7% | +25.4% |
| May 2015 | Jan 2017 | 85 | 73.6% | -41.0% | +362.5% |
| Apr 2017 | Apr 2017 | 1 | 1.1% | +55.9% | +344.2% |
| Jul 2018 | Nov 2020 | 124 | 72.8% | -43.0% | +298.7% |
| Dec 2020 | Dec 2020 | 2 | 4.5% | +28.0% | +371.4% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 10.9% | +60.3% | +430.4% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 0.0% | -23.6% | +381.5% |
| Jun 2022 | Jan 2023 | 31 | 49.6% | +5.5% | +460.2% |
| Feb 2023 | Feb 2023 | 2 | 2.4% | +2.0% | +406.0% |
| Mar 2023 | Dec 2023 | 41 | 43.6% | +13.7% | +413.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 8 | 10.1% | +77.4% | +374.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +82.6% | +327.4% |
| Average | 33 | — | +2.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CENX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Century Aluminum Company (CENX) is currently 161.0% above its 200-week moving average of $19.81. It would need to fall to $19.81 to cross below the line.
What is CENX's 200-week moving average price?
Century Aluminum Company's 200-week moving average is $19.81 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CENX drops below its 200-week moving average?
CENX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 33 weeks on average.
Is CENX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CENX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 32.3%. Price-to-book is 4.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CENX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.3 years, $100 invested in CENX would have grown to $327, compared to $1644 for the S&P 500. That's 4.1% annualized vs 10.0% for the index. CENX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19