CENT
Central Garden & Pet Company Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods Investor Relations →
Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) closed at $43.18 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.7% above its 200-week moving average of $35.49. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 20.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.29 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1722 weeks of data, CENT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CENT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +4.8%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, CENT is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.8%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CENT would have grown to $1983, compared to $3005 for the S&P 500. CENT has returned 9.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CENT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CENT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 37 historical episodes, buying CENT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +1.8% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +18.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 53% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.3% vs +34.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CENT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CENT would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CENT's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.81 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $37.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $39.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $42.70 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.20 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CENT's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CENT has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +4.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 1994 | Nov 1995 | 75 | 59.0% | -37.5% | +1717.4% |
| Dec 1995 | Dec 1995 | 1 | 3.4% | +159.0% | +2045.1% |
| Aug 1998 | Sep 1998 | 3 | 15.5% | -45.2% | +995.0% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 2 | 19.4% | -53.0% | +876.5% |
| Nov 1998 | Apr 2002 | 179 | 65.2% | -60.8% | +815.1% |
| Feb 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 66.3% | +19.7% | +1136.3% |
| Jun 2007 | Jul 2009 | 110 | 80.1% | -39.6% | +330.8% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 8 | 17.9% | +3.9% | +453.6% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 7 | 6.4% | -2.6% | +435.3% |
| Mar 2010 | Apr 2010 | 1 | 0.7% | -9.1% | +458.7% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 4.5% | +15.3% | +486.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | 2.4% | +6.4% | +477.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 1.0% | +7.7% | +470.8% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 1.1% | -21.0% | +481.7% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 1.6% | -7.7% | +521.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 12 | 20.3% | +36.2% | +636.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 9 | 8.6% | +28.5% | +572.4% |
| Feb 2012 | Feb 2012 | 2 | 2.8% | +5.7% | +533.1% |
| Mar 2012 | Mar 2012 | 1 | 0.1% | +0.2% | +526.6% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 3.8% | -10.7% | +533.8% |
| Dec 2012 | Jun 2014 | 79 | 33.7% | -31.9% | +500.0% |
| Jul 2014 | Jul 2014 | 3 | 3.3% | +17.8% | +529.5% |
| Aug 2014 | Dec 2014 | 19 | 21.0% | +33.1% | +554.1% |
| Jan 2015 | Feb 2015 | 1 | 2.5% | +59.6% | +552.6% |
| Mar 2019 | May 2020 | 59 | 24.3% | -5.1% | +108.3% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 8 | 8.6% | +14.9% | +43.2% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 7.7% | +14.6% | +40.8% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 21 | 10.5% | +35.0% | +41.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 0.2% | +1.1% | +29.9% |
| Nov 2023 | Dec 2023 | 2 | 6.6% | +23.7% | +38.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Nov 2024 | 5 | 7.2% | -4.7% | +28.2% |
| Jan 2025 | Jan 2025 | 2 | 3.4% | -6.9% | +22.8% |
| Feb 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 2.4% | +11.1% | +22.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 15 | 6.5% | +4.5% | +28.2% |
| Aug 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 4.6% | N/A | +26.7% |
| Sep 2025 | Feb 2026 | 20 | 16.6% | N/A | +23.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 0.0% | N/A | +22.7% |
| Average | 18 | — | +4.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CENT below its 200-week moving average?
No. Central Garden & Pet Company (CENT) is currently 21.7% above its 200-week moving average of $35.49. It would need to fall to $35.49 to cross below the line.
What is CENT's 200-week moving average price?
Central Garden & Pet Company's 200-week moving average is $35.49 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CENT drops below its 200-week moving average?
CENT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +4.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is CENT a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CENT as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Free cash flow yield is 8.8%. Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CENT compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.1 years, $100 invested in CENT would have grown to $1983, compared to $3005 for the S&P 500. That's 9.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CENT has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19