CDW
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CDW Corporation (CDW) closed at $146.19 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.0% below its 200-week moving average of $176.20. This places CDW in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -12.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.70 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 642 weeks of data, CDW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 48 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -14.2%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $18.3 billion, CDW is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 44.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.5x book value.
Over the past 12.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CDW would have grown to $520, compared to $477 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.3% vs 13.5% for the index — confirming CDW as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $2,505,138. Notably, these purchases occurred while CDW is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -3.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CDW vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CDW Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying CDW when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -22.0% after 12 months (median -14.0%), compared to +19.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CDW crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CDW would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CDW's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-03.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $113.62 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $125.18 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $139.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $157.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $180.21 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.80 | $2.91 | +4.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | $2.29 | $2.28 | -0.3% |
| 2026-02-04 | $2.44 | $2.57 | +5.1% |
| 2025-11-04 | $2.62 | $2.71 | +3.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CDW's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CDW has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +-14.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2024 | Jan 2025 | 12 | 8.2% | -14.2% | -19.7% |
| Feb 2025 | Ongoing | 84+ | 43.4% | Ongoing | -20.4% |
| Average | 48 | — | +-14.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDW below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, CDW Corporation (CDW) is trading 17.0% below its 200-week moving average of $176.20. The current price is $146.19.
What is CDW's 200-week moving average price?
CDW Corporation's 200-week moving average is $176.20 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CDW drops below its 200-week moving average?
CDW has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -14.2%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 48 weeks on average.
Is CDW a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CDW as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 44.0%. Price-to-book is 7.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CDW compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.3 years, $100 invested in CDW would have grown to $520, compared to $477 for the S&P 500. That's 14.3% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. CDW has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CDW pay a dividend?
Yes. CDW Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 169.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18