CDP
COPT Defense Properties Real Estate - Office & Defense Investor Relations →
COPT Defense Properties (CDP) closed at $37.96 as of 2026-07-31, trading 48.6% above its 200-week moving average of $25.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 49.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, CDP is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1756 weeks of data, CDP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CDP at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.1%.
With a market cap of $4.4 billion, CDP is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.8%. The stock trades at 2.8x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CDP would have grown to $2628, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. CDP has returned 10.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 8% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CDP vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CDP Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying CDP when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +8.8% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +11.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +13.1% vs +29.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CDP crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CDP would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CDP's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $30.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $32.19 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $34.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $36.87 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.77 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CDP's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CDP has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +9.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1992 | Dec 1992 | 1 | 2.9% | +23.3% | +2857.1% |
| Jun 1993 | Jun 1993 | 1 | 1.2% | +12.6% | +2698.1% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 3 | 3.2% | -34.9% | +2603.1% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1994 | 1 | 0.9% | -34.9% | +2537.3% |
| Aug 1994 | Aug 1994 | 1 | 1.0% | -18.6% | +2537.3% |
| Oct 1994 | May 1997 | 132 | 34.6% | -28.8% | +2549.1% |
| Jun 1997 | Jul 1997 | 6 | 3.2% | +87.1% | +2970.6% |
| Aug 1997 | Aug 1997 | 1 | 0.4% | +64.2% | +2988.9% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 1.5% | -24.0% | +156.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Apr 2008 | 18 | 18.7% | -9.3% | +165.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 4.7% | -10.3% | +144.4% |
| Sep 2008 | Aug 2009 | 44 | 39.4% | +13.6% | +153.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 2.2% | +14.6% | +131.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 5 | 5.7% | +11.4% | +137.5% |
| Jun 2011 | Apr 2013 | 95 | 36.5% | -23.5% | +135.7% |
| May 2013 | Jul 2013 | 6 | 10.1% | +8.2% | +149.3% |
| Jul 2013 | Feb 2014 | 29 | 16.2% | +14.6% | +146.3% |
| Jul 2015 | Feb 2016 | 30 | 13.9% | +35.6% | +160.9% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 7 | 4.5% | +5.4% | +111.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Feb 2019 | 15 | 19.0% | +19.1% | +102.6% |
| Feb 2019 | Mar 2019 | 1 | 0.2% | +2.1% | +102.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Jul 2020 | 22 | 39.0% | +7.4% | +98.7% |
| Aug 2020 | Nov 2020 | 14 | 14.2% | +16.2% | +93.5% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 5 | 3.3% | +10.1% | +90.3% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 1 | 0.7% | +18.7% | +86.2% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 9.1% | +3.7% | +87.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 17 | 10.8% | +8.0% | +84.5% |
| Sep 2023 | Nov 2023 | 8 | 4.2% | +31.8% | +81.0% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 3.2% | +33.2% | +82.8% |
| Mar 2024 | Apr 2024 | 6 | 3.9% | +17.9% | +78.1% |
| Average | 16 | — | +9.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CDP below its 200-week moving average?
No. COPT Defense Properties (CDP) is currently 48.6% above its 200-week moving average of $25.54. It would need to fall to $25.54 to cross below the line.
What is CDP's 200-week moving average price?
COPT Defense Properties's 200-week moving average is $25.54 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CDP drops below its 200-week moving average?
CDP has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is CDP a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CDP as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Return on equity is 10.8%. Price-to-book is 2.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CDP compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CDP would have grown to $2628, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 10.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CDP has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CDP pay a dividend?
Yes. COPT Defense Properties currently pays a dividend yield of 326.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31