CDNA
CareDx, Inc. Healthcare - Diagnostics & Research Investor Relations →
CareDx, Inc. (CDNA) closed at $19.47 as of 2026-02-02, trading 20.2% above its 200-week moving average of $16.19. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 26.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 555 weeks of data, CDNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 5 times. On average, these episodes lasted 63 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -46.3%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $1036 million, CDNA is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.2%. Return on equity stands at 24.1%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.2x book value.
Share count has increased 3.5% over three years, indicating dilution. CDNA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 10.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CDNA would have grown to $308, compared to $402 for the S&P 500. CDNA has returned 11.0% annualized vs 13.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: CDNA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CDNA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 5 historical episodes, buying CDNA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -42.8% after 12 months (median -31.0%), compared to +1.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. After 24 months, the average return was -63.8% vs +22.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CDNA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CDNA has crossed below its 200-week MA 5 times with an average 1-year return of +-46.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2015 | Jul 2015 | 2 | 9.1% | -31.1% | +182.6% |
| Jul 2015 | Aug 2015 | 5 | 9.2% | -29.5% | +197.7% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2017 | 107 | 83.6% | -40.6% | +184.6% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 4 | 6.6% | -71.2% | -50.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Nov 2025 | 197 | 86.4% | -59.1% | -48.9% |
| Average | 63 | — | +-46.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02