CCL
Carnival Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Cruise Lines Investor Relations →
Carnival Corporation (CCL) closed at $30.87 as of 2026-06-19, trading 62.0% above its 200-week moving average of $19.06. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.0% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 70, CCL is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1982 weeks of data, CCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CCL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +17.1%.
With a market cap of $42.8 billion, CCL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 27.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.3x book value.
Share count has increased 4.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CCL would have grown to $620, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. CCL has returned 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CCL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CCL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying CCL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +7.4% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +7.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.7% vs +19.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CCL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CCL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CCL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-06-24.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $25.59 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $30.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $37.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $49.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CCL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CCL has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1988 | Jul 1988 | 1 | 1.9% | +82.4% | +1918.8% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 4.8% | +110.9% | +1981.9% |
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 5.2% | +44.8% | +1424.4% |
| Sep 1990 | Jan 1991 | 20 | 30.5% | +47.0% | +1388.3% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2001 | 50 | 39.1% | +10.5% | +84.0% |
| Feb 2001 | Jul 2001 | 22 | 22.0% | -12.3% | +66.5% |
| Aug 2001 | Mar 2002 | 31 | 41.9% | -20.0% | +56.7% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 3 | 3.3% | -17.1% | +57.6% |
| May 2002 | May 2003 | 52 | 25.4% | -5.6% | +58.6% |
| May 2006 | Jun 2006 | 6 | 9.0% | +23.7% | +13.7% |
| Jul 2006 | Aug 2006 | 7 | 9.8% | +23.3% | +15.9% |
| Jul 2007 | Sep 2007 | 8 | 4.9% | -11.2% | +1.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Feb 2010 | 121 | 63.3% | -42.7% | -3.4% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 16 | 14.2% | +12.6% | +17.2% |
| Jul 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 12.4% | +4.8% | +22.9% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 7.3% | +19.3% | +26.0% |
| Jan 2012 | Apr 2012 | 14 | 7.2% | +27.6% | +27.6% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 3.3% | +16.4% | +27.0% |
| May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 3 | 1.9% | +25.1% | +16.5% |
| Sep 2013 | Oct 2013 | 4 | 4.4% | +27.6% | +14.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 10.0% | +9.3% | -31.3% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 4 | 5.4% | -70.3% | -35.7% |
| May 2019 | Dec 2023 | 238 | 83.4% | -75.1% | -39.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Jun 2024 | 22 | 15.8% | +60.6% | +97.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 6 | 12.1% | +96.4% | +110.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 0.8% | +56.1% | +89.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +17.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CCL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Carnival Corporation (CCL) is currently 62.0% above its 200-week moving average of $19.06. It would need to fall to $19.06 to cross below the line.
What is CCL's 200-week moving average price?
Carnival Corporation's 200-week moving average is $19.06 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CCL drops below its 200-week moving average?
CCL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +17.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is CCL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CCL as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 5.1%. Return on equity is 27.9%. Price-to-book is 3.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CCL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CCL would have grown to $620, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 5.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CCL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CCL pay a dividend?
Yes. Carnival Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 97.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19