CBU
Community Financial System, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Community Financial System, Inc. (CBU) closed at $62.34 as of 2026-06-19, trading 19.1% above its 200-week moving average of $52.32. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2068 weeks of data, CBU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CBU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.7%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, CBU is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.3%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CBU would have grown to $3302, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.0% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CBU as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CBU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CBU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying CBU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.2% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.2% vs +20.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CBU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CBU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CBU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $57.99 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $60.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $62.71 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $65.37 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $68.27 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CBU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CBU has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +13.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 11.4% | -20.1% | +5001.3% |
| Jan 1987 | Feb 1987 | 1 | 0.3% | -6.8% | +4931.5% |
| Mar 1987 | Sep 1987 | 25 | 11.4% | -6.9% | +5001.3% |
| Oct 1987 | Sep 1989 | 99 | 26.4% | -13.8% | +5223.1% |
| Oct 1989 | Aug 1991 | 94 | 50.7% | -45.5% | +5465.1% |
| Aug 1991 | Sep 1991 | 4 | 2.6% | +62.5% | +6710.2% |
| Sep 1991 | Nov 1991 | 8 | 4.7% | +73.7% | +6746.0% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 4.1% | +81.4% | +6882.9% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.2% | +5.7% | +1341.2% |
| Dec 1999 | Sep 2000 | 40 | 15.6% | +7.4% | +1291.3% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.0% | +15.2% | +1177.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 5 | 9.6% | +12.0% | +1163.1% |
| May 2006 | Jul 2006 | 11 | 7.0% | +11.6% | +539.0% |
| Feb 2007 | Jan 2008 | 47 | 20.0% | +9.8% | +482.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 2.6% | -26.7% | +465.8% |
| Jan 2009 | Dec 2009 | 48 | 32.1% | -2.5% | +449.1% |
| Jan 2010 | Jan 2010 | 1 | 0.8% | +48.3% | +470.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.5% | +59.8% | +47.2% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 7.7% | +60.4% | +45.1% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 5 | 6.8% | +43.3% | +33.5% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.5% | +33.0% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 6.1% | +29.1% | +39.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 2.6% | -11.6% | +13.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 4.9% | -27.3% | +17.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 5.8% | -18.4% | +14.4% |
| Jan 2023 | Jul 2024 | 78 | 35.5% | -16.1% | +15.2% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.7% | +16.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.1% | +19.0% | +25.7% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | +19.0% | +19.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 5.2% | N/A | +18.4% |
| Average | 17 | — | +13.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Community Financial System, Inc. (CBU) is currently 19.1% above its 200-week moving average of $52.32. It would need to fall to $52.32 to cross below the line.
What is CBU's 200-week moving average price?
Community Financial System, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $52.32 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CBU drops below its 200-week moving average?
CBU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CBU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CBU as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Return on equity is 11.3%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CBU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CBU would have grown to $3302, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 11.0% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CBU has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19