CBU
Community Financial System, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Community Financial System, Inc. (CBU) closed at $62.00 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.0% above its 200-week moving average of $52.56. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 2.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2081 weeks of data, CBU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CBU at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.5%.
With a market cap of $3.3 billion, CBU is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.5%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CBU would have grown to $3310, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.9% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CBU as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CBU vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CBU Crosses Below the Line?
Across 25 historical episodes, buying CBU when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.6% after 12 months (median +16.0%), compared to +17.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 73% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.2% vs +20.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CBU crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CBU would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CBU's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $60.25 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $64.22 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $68.73 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $73.94 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $79.99 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | $1.18 | $1.10 | -6.8% |
| 2026-04-29 | $1.09 | $1.08 | -0.6% |
| 2026-01-27 | $1.13 | $1.07 | -5.3% |
| 2025-10-21 | $1.05 | $1.05 | +0.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CBU's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CBU has crossed below its 200-week MA 30 times with an average 1-year return of +14.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1986 | Jan 1987 | 6 | 11.4% | -20.1% | +5013.1% |
| Jan 1987 | Feb 1987 | 1 | 0.3% | -6.8% | +4943.0% |
| Mar 1987 | Sep 1987 | 25 | 11.4% | -6.9% | +5013.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Sep 1989 | 99 | 26.4% | -13.8% | +5235.4% |
| Oct 1989 | Aug 1991 | 94 | 50.7% | -45.5% | +5477.9% |
| Aug 1991 | Sep 1991 | 4 | 2.6% | +62.5% | +6725.9% |
| Sep 1991 | Nov 1991 | 8 | 4.7% | +73.7% | +6761.7% |
| Dec 1991 | Dec 1991 | 1 | 2.7% | +80.9% | +6792.6% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 0.3% | +5.7% | +1344.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Sep 2000 | 40 | 15.7% | +7.4% | +1294.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 1 | 2.1% | +15.2% | +1180.7% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 5 | 9.7% | +12.0% | +1166.0% |
| May 2006 | Jul 2006 | 11 | 7.0% | +11.6% | +540.5% |
| Feb 2007 | Jan 2008 | 47 | 20.0% | +9.8% | +483.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 2.7% | -26.7% | +467.1% |
| Jan 2009 | Dec 2009 | 48 | 32.2% | -2.5% | +450.4% |
| Jan 2010 | Jan 2010 | 1 | 0.9% | +48.3% | +471.5% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 7.6% | +59.8% | +47.6% |
| May 2020 | May 2020 | 2 | 7.7% | +60.4% | +45.4% |
| Jun 2020 | Jul 2020 | 3 | 6.8% | +53.1% | +42.8% |
| Jul 2020 | Aug 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +30.5% | +33.3% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 6.2% | +29.1% | +39.6% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 1.9% | -11.6% | +13.4% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 5 | 5.0% | -27.3% | +18.0% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 4 | 5.2% | -18.4% | +14.6% |
| Jan 2023 | Jul 2024 | 78 | 35.5% | -16.1% | +15.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Oct 2024 | 1 | 0.4% | +4.7% | +16.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 4 | 7.1% | +19.0% | +26.0% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 1 | 0.8% | +19.0% | +19.2% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 5.3% | +27.8% | +18.7% |
| Average | 17 | — | +14.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CBU below its 200-week moving average?
No. Community Financial System, Inc. (CBU) is currently 18.0% above its 200-week moving average of $52.56. It would need to fall to $52.56 to cross below the line.
What is CBU's 200-week moving average price?
Community Financial System, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $52.56 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CBU drops below its 200-week moving average?
CBU has crossed below its 200-week moving average 30 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 17 weeks on average.
Is CBU a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CBU as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Return on equity is 11.5%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CBU compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in CBU would have grown to $3310, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CBU has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CBU pay a dividend?
Yes. Community Financial System, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 306.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18