CATO
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The Cato Corporation (CATO) closed at $2.93 as of 2026-03-20, trading 48.0% below its 200-week moving average of $5.64. This places CATO in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -47.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 37, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.5x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1982 weeks of data, CATO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 53 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CATO at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.3%.
With a market cap of $58 million, CATO is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -5.3%. The stock trades at 0.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 7.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CATO would have grown to $98, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. CATO has returned -0.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CATO vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CATO Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying CATO when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -10.2% after 12 months (median -21.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +8.4% vs +36.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CATO crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CATO has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +2.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1988 | May 1991 | 162 | 86.3% | +18.0% | +520.8% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 4.4% | -29.6% | +50.0% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 0.3% | -29.3% | +43.2% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 1.3% | -25.7% | +42.7% |
| Jul 1994 | Aug 1997 | 161 | 62.8% | -20.2% | +53.2% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 3.3% | +39.5% | +97.3% |
| Oct 1998 | Oct 1998 | 1 | 3.6% | +91.6% | +87.8% |
| Jan 1999 | Jan 1999 | 1 | 1.1% | +46.3% | +75.4% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2009 | 76 | 36.3% | -24.6% | -59.1% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 2 | 1.3% | +28.9% | -62.0% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 4 | 12.0% | +58.8% | -57.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 4 | 6.0% | +31.6% | -61.2% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 7.0% | -52.6% | -83.0% |
| Nov 2016 | Nov 2019 | 156 | 59.3% | -46.7% | -83.8% |
| Dec 2019 | Apr 2021 | 69 | 55.9% | -51.4% | -77.4% |
| May 2022 | Ongoing | 201+ | 69.4% | Ongoing | -69.4% |
| Average | 53 | — | +2.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CATO below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, The Cato Corporation (CATO) is trading 48.0% below its 200-week moving average of $5.64. The current price is $2.93.
What is CATO's 200-week moving average price?
The Cato Corporation's 200-week moving average is $5.64 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CATO drops below its 200-week moving average?
CATO has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 53 weeks on average.
Is CATO a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CATO as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 37. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -5.3%. Price-to-book is 0.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CATO compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in CATO would have grown to $98, compared to $2683 for the S&P 500. That's -0.1% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. CATO has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20