CAT
Caterpillar Inc. Industrials - Machinery Investor Relations →
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) closed at $726.20 as of 2026-02-02, trading 130.8% above its 200-week moving average of $314.71. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 110.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 75, CAT is in overbought territory.
Over the past 3296 weeks of data, CAT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 38 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +25.0%.
With a market cap of $340.2 billion, CAT is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 43.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.9x book value.
CAT is a Dividend Aristocrat, having increased its dividend for 25 or more consecutive years. The current yield is 83.00%. The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAT would have grown to $22653, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.8% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming CAT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 23.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Growth of $100: CAT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CAT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +43.2% after 12 months (median +66.0%), compared to +9.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +60.5% vs +15.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CAT has crossed below its 200-week MA 38 times with an average 1-year return of +25.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1963 | Mar 1963 | 2 | 1.7% | +47.8% | +165913.5% |
| Mar 1963 | Mar 1963 | 1 | 0.6% | +73.5% | +165325.0% |
| Jan 1968 | Apr 1968 | 10 | 6.7% | +22.3% | +64967.7% |
| May 1968 | Aug 1968 | 13 | 8.2% | +38.4% | +63747.7% |
| Nov 1969 | Nov 1969 | 1 | 2.0% | -11.7% | +60476.3% |
| Dec 1969 | Dec 1969 | 1 | 1.3% | +1.8% | +60104.6% |
| Jan 1970 | Mar 1970 | 10 | 11.8% | +11.0% | +63623.2% |
| Apr 1970 | Dec 1970 | 37 | 23.3% | +26.4% | +59555.6% |
| Nov 1971 | Nov 1971 | 2 | 9.4% | +69.6% | +62009.8% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 29 | 27.6% | +23.0% | +44104.3% |
| Mar 1978 | Apr 1978 | 5 | 6.5% | +23.7% | +33622.9% |
| May 1979 | May 1979 | 1 | 0.4% | -18.2% | +29979.3% |
| Jun 1979 | Jun 1979 | 2 | 1.6% | -7.8% | +29910.3% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 3 | 1.9% | -0.2% | +30188.1% |
| Oct 1979 | Jan 1980 | 16 | 10.3% | +5.5% | +29705.2% |
| Feb 1980 | Jul 1980 | 23 | 19.5% | +1.4% | +29570.0% |
| Aug 1980 | Sep 1980 | 3 | 3.2% | +9.9% | +30759.6% |
| Sep 1981 | Dec 1983 | 116 | 36.0% | -23.5% | +28976.6% |
| Feb 1984 | Mar 1984 | 5 | 3.9% | -20.8% | +32995.6% |
| Apr 1984 | Nov 1985 | 83 | 33.5% | -28.8% | +32186.2% |
| Sep 1986 | Dec 1986 | 12 | 7.7% | +88.5% | +36518.7% |
| Jun 1990 | Apr 1992 | 94 | 29.4% | -3.7% | +25401.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Jun 1992 | 1 | 0.4% | +42.9% | +24854.0% |
| Aug 1992 | Sep 1992 | 5 | 7.1% | +64.8% | +25532.4% |
| Sep 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 4.9% | +63.3% | +25661.5% |
| Dec 1999 | Dec 1999 | 2 | 2.2% | -5.9% | +6163.9% |
| Jan 2000 | Dec 2000 | 47 | 33.3% | +3.1% | +6330.4% |
| Jan 2001 | Apr 2001 | 13 | 12.1% | +19.7% | +6120.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 2.6% | -11.5% | +5940.1% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 17 | 19.8% | +63.5% | +6191.0% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +79.3% | +5641.5% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 4 | 4.2% | +95.9% | +5687.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Jan 2010 | 66 | 62.1% | -0.2% | +2134.0% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 9.5% | +74.1% | +1885.9% |
| Nov 2013 | Nov 2013 | 1 | 0.7% | +31.9% | +1095.1% |
| Jan 2015 | May 2015 | 18 | 10.7% | -25.1% | +1000.7% |
| May 2015 | Jul 2016 | 61 | 28.5% | -12.0% | +1012.4% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 11 | 18.6% | +136.4% | +721.8% |
| Average | 19 | — | +25.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02