CASY
Casey's General Stores Consumer Defensive Investor Relations →
Casey's General Stores (CASY) closed at $895.14 as of 2026-06-12, trading 131.4% above its 200-week moving average of $386.81. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 98.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, CASY is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.64 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2177 weeks of data, CASY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 20 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CASY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +14.2%.
With a market cap of $33.2 billion, CASY is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.6%. Return on equity stands at 19.2%, a solid level. The stock trades at 8.4x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CASY would have grown to $27442, compared to $3068 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming CASY as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CASY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CASY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying CASY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +23.8% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to -2.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 83% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.0% vs +6.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CASY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CASY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CASY has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +14.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 0.7% | -21.3% | +40664.7% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 3 | 2.4% | -12.2% | +39000.9% |
| Feb 1989 | Aug 1991 | 128 | 55.6% | -19.8% | +39815.4% |
| Nov 1999 | Sep 2000 | 42 | 30.3% | +15.1% | +10665.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Dec 2000 | 10 | 5.2% | -1.8% | +8939.5% |
| Jan 2001 | Jun 2001 | 22 | 14.2% | +16.7% | +8834.3% |
| Aug 2001 | Nov 2001 | 13 | 12.5% | -9.3% | +8651.9% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 1 | 5.2% | -8.3% | +9017.7% |
| May 2002 | Dec 2002 | 30 | 20.4% | +16.2% | +9015.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Mar 2003 | 11 | 10.1% | +50.2% | +8954.8% |
| Mar 2008 | Jun 2008 | 11 | 8.7% | +23.9% | +4619.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 3.2% | +15.2% | +4657.1% |
| Dec 2008 | Mar 2009 | 14 | 21.4% | +35.1% | +4423.3% |
| Apr 2018 | Jul 2018 | 12 | 8.1% | +31.7% | +832.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 1 | 4.1% | +81.1% | +671.2% |
| Average | 20 | — | +14.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CASY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Casey's General Stores (CASY) is currently 131.4% above its 200-week moving average of $386.81. It would need to fall to $386.81 to cross below the line.
What is CASY's 200-week moving average price?
Casey's General Stores's 200-week moving average is $386.81 as of 2026-06-12. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CASY drops below its 200-week moving average?
CASY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +14.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 20 weeks on average.
Is CASY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CASY as of 2026-06-12: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.6%. Return on equity is 19.2%. Price-to-book is 8.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CASY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in CASY would have grown to $27442, compared to $3068 for the S&P 500. That's 18.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CASY has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CASY pay a dividend?
Yes. Casey's General Stores currently pays a dividend yield of 26.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-12