CARG
CarGurus, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto & Truck Dealerships Investor Relations →
CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) closed at $30.02 as of 2026-06-19, trading 14.4% above its 200-week moving average of $26.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.98 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 405 weeks of data, CARG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -22.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, CARG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.1%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 58.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 7.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CARG would have grown to $54, compared to $290 for the S&P 500. CARG has returned -7.6% annualized vs 14.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $1,000,034.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 3.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CARG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CARG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying CARG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -20.6% after 12 months (median -24.0%), compared to +9.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 33% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -27.1% vs +32.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CARG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CARG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CARG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $24.86 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $27.31 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $30.30 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $34.02 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.79 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CARG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CARG has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +-22.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 6 | 16.1% | +8.5% | -15.1% |
| Apr 2019 | Apr 2019 | 1 | 2.4% | -49.6% | -17.3% |
| May 2019 | Nov 2019 | 25 | 20.0% | -37.4% | -18.4% |
| Dec 2019 | Dec 2020 | 52 | 55.4% | -6.9% | -18.0% |
| Dec 2020 | Sep 2021 | 38 | 26.9% | +6.0% | -5.4% |
| Dec 2021 | Dec 2021 | 1 | 0.5% | -57.4% | -7.5% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 3 | 8.7% | -49.1% | -6.0% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2024 | 110 | 56.1% | -49.7% | -8.1% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 1 | 5.0% | +36.6% | +28.7% |
| Average | 26 | — | +-22.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CARG below its 200-week moving average?
No. CarGurus, Inc. (CARG) is currently 14.4% above its 200-week moving average of $26.24. It would need to fall to $26.24 to cross below the line.
What is CARG's 200-week moving average price?
CarGurus, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $26.24 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CARG drops below its 200-week moving average?
CARG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -22.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is CARG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CARG as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 8.1%. Return on equity is 58.5%. Price-to-book is 11.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CARG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 7.8 years, $100 invested in CARG would have grown to $54, compared to $290 for the S&P 500. That's -7.6% annualized vs 14.6% for the index. CARG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19