CALM
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. Consumer Defensive - Farm Products Investor Relations →
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) closed at $87.78 as of 2026-07-31, trading 31.5% above its 200-week moving average of $66.76. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 35.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 76, CALM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.11 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1498 weeks of data, CALM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CALM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.5%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, CALM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 12.2%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CALM would have grown to $10900, compared to $1282 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 17.7% vs 9.3% for the index — confirming CALM as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -23.2% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CALM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CALM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying CALM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +53.2% after 12 months (median +5.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 56% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +63.6% vs +24.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CALM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CALM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CALM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-02-28).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $70.44 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $75.37 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $81.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $87.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $95.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CALM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CALM has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +51.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1997 | Dec 2000 | 161 | 49.4% | -18.3% | +10744.6% |
| Jan 2001 | Apr 2001 | 9 | 9.3% | -28.0% | +14326.0% |
| Jun 2001 | Jan 2003 | 84 | 31.9% | -29.9% | +13551.4% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 11 | 11.8% | +838.8% | +16967.1% |
| May 2005 | Aug 2005 | 14 | 10.2% | +16.8% | +5037.7% |
| Sep 2005 | Dec 2006 | 63 | 17.2% | +6.1% | +4823.2% |
| Feb 2017 | Mar 2017 | 2 | 2.2% | +15.0% | +205.2% |
| Mar 2017 | Sep 2017 | 26 | 14.0% | +20.3% | +210.1% |
| Jan 2018 | Jan 2018 | 1 | 2.8% | +7.9% | +183.9% |
| Jan 2018 | Feb 2018 | 2 | 2.9% | +5.2% | +181.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Sep 2019 | 40 | 15.4% | +0.8% | +162.7% |
| Sep 2019 | Nov 2019 | 6 | 11.2% | +1.2% | +199.1% |
| Dec 2019 | Apr 2020 | 17 | 16.8% | -11.6% | +167.5% |
| Jun 2020 | Jun 2020 | 1 | 1.4% | -12.5% | +175.4% |
| Aug 2020 | Mar 2021 | 28 | 12.9% | -11.9% | +176.2% |
| Mar 2021 | Jan 2022 | 45 | 17.4% | +24.2% | +180.3% |
| Average | 32 | — | +51.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CALM below its 200-week moving average?
No. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (CALM) is currently 31.5% above its 200-week moving average of $66.76. It would need to fall to $66.76 to cross below the line.
What is CALM's 200-week moving average price?
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $66.76 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CALM drops below its 200-week moving average?
CALM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is CALM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CALM as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 76 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.2%. Return on equity is 12.2%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CALM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in CALM would have grown to $10900, compared to $1282 for the S&P 500. That's 17.7% annualized vs 9.3% for the index. CALM has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CALM pay a dividend?
Yes. Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 551.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31