CAL
Caleres, Inc. Consumer Discretionary - Footwear Investor Relations →
Caleres, Inc. (CAL) closed at $12.84 as of 2026-07-31, trading 41.8% below its 200-week moving average of $22.05. This places CAL in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -46.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2371 weeks of data, CAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.7%.
With a market cap of $431 million, CAL is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -0.3%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAL would have grown to $216, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. CAL has returned 2.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -17.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CAL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying CAL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -0.4% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +10.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 52% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.4% vs +25.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CAL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CAL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-04-30).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.41 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $10.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $12.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.39 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.54 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CAL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CAL has crossed below its 200-week MA 36 times with an average 1-year return of +2.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1987 | Dec 1987 | 9 | 10.4% | +28.2% | +185.6% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 0.8% | +12.0% | +160.4% |
| Nov 1988 | Dec 1988 | 5 | 1.5% | -7.0% | +152.2% |
| Dec 1988 | Jan 1989 | 1 | 1.9% | -9.2% | +155.1% |
| Oct 1989 | Aug 1991 | 95 | 30.0% | -27.5% | +139.6% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 6 | 4.9% | +3.1% | +163.1% |
| Nov 1991 | Dec 1991 | 6 | 7.7% | +2.5% | +160.3% |
| Mar 1992 | Mar 1992 | 1 | 2.3% | +34.4% | +166.5% |
| Mar 1992 | Aug 1992 | 21 | 11.9% | +33.3% | +161.1% |
| Apr 1995 | Jun 1998 | 162 | 51.2% | -39.3% | +104.7% |
| Jul 1998 | Nov 1998 | 15 | 23.5% | +14.9% | +174.2% |
| Jan 1999 | Apr 1999 | 13 | 16.0% | -17.3% | +198.8% |
| Nov 1999 | Jan 2001 | 60 | 39.8% | -27.9% | +197.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Nov 2001 | 12 | 25.8% | +51.0% | +218.1% |
| Sep 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 0.7% | -11.0% | -7.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2010 | 127 | 87.8% | -52.9% | -7.1% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 2.3% | -35.9% | +10.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Nov 2010 | 21 | 28.6% | -23.8% | +12.5% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 1.5% | -21.4% | +27.8% |
| Mar 2011 | Apr 2011 | 3 | 14.5% | -9.1% | +51.8% |
| May 2011 | Feb 2012 | 41 | 41.3% | -21.2% | +37.7% |
| Mar 2012 | May 2012 | 10 | 15.1% | +92.2% | +69.7% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 3 | 9.6% | +15.8% | -38.8% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 4 | 4.8% | +12.3% | -39.8% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 1 | 1.6% | +4.8% | -40.2% |
| Aug 2016 | Oct 2016 | 5 | 3.1% | +13.3% | -40.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 3 | 5.6% | +16.1% | -42.1% |
| Mar 2017 | Apr 2017 | 4 | 5.6% | +22.6% | -44.6% |
| May 2017 | Sep 2017 | 18 | 14.6% | +32.0% | -44.1% |
| Nov 2018 | Nov 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | -22.8% | -49.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 4 | 7.5% | -20.5% | -48.6% |
| Jan 2019 | Feb 2019 | 3 | 2.9% | -29.3% | -49.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2021 | 110 | 87.2% | -65.0% | -47.2% |
| Feb 2022 | Apr 2022 | 5 | 5.7% | +38.7% | -29.4% |
| May 2023 | May 2023 | 1 | 4.5% | +107.4% | -26.4% |
| Dec 2024 | Ongoing | 86+ | 60.6% | Ongoing | -46.9% |
| Average | 24 | — | +2.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAL below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-07-31, Caleres, Inc. (CAL) is trading 41.8% below its 200-week moving average of $22.05. The current price is $12.84.
What is CAL's 200-week moving average price?
Caleres, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $22.05 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CAL drops below its 200-week moving average?
CAL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 36 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is CAL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CAL as of 2026-07-31: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -0.3%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CAL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in CAL would have grown to $216, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 2.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. CAL has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CAL pay a dividend?
Yes. Caleres, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 215.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31