CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) closed at $60.20 as of 2026-05-01, trading 47.2% above its 200-week moving average of $40.90. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 51.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 52, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1706 weeks of data, CAKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.6%.
With a market cap of $3.0 billion, CAKE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 33.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.8x book value.
Over the past 32.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAKE would have grown to $1999, compared to $2772 for the S&P 500. CAKE has returned 9.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 46.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CAKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying CAKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.7% vs +38.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
CAKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +19.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 3 | 3.5% | -6.1% | +2123.0% |
| Mar 1994 | Oct 1994 | 29 | 19.7% | +2.7% | +2042.9% |
| Nov 1994 | Feb 1995 | 16 | 20.4% | +26.0% | +2072.3% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 7.7% | +54.9% | +2133.5% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.6% | +1946.2% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 14 | 14.7% | +22.6% | +1833.9% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.7% | +54.5% | +1799.1% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 14.0% | +52.7% | +1799.1% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +54.0% | +1776.6% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 11.8% | +85.9% | +1514.0% |
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2009 | 183 | 79.7% | -3.8% | +183.8% |
| Jul 2017 | Jan 2018 | 26 | 20.6% | +27.4% | +52.7% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 8 | 8.0% | +4.8% | +59.2% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 1.1% | -12.4% | +43.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 27 | 14.4% | -19.9% | +42.3% |
| May 2019 | Jan 2021 | 88 | 66.0% | -51.3% | +45.7% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 3.6% | -9.4% | +65.2% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 13 | 16.5% | -10.5% | +61.8% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2023 | 45 | 31.5% | +5.1% | +83.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 19 | 14.5% | +9.4% | +88.2% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 18.3% | +6.4% | +86.2% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 6.9% | +52.2% | +89.9% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 7 | 6.0% | +44.1% | +81.6% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.6% | +81.9% | +78.2% |
| Average | 22 | — | +19.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAKE below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is currently 47.2% above its 200-week moving average of $40.90. It would need to fall to $40.90 to cross below the line.
What is CAKE's 200-week moving average price?
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $40.90 as of 2026-05-01. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CAKE drops below its 200-week moving average?
CAKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is CAKE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CAKE as of 2026-05-01: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 52. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 33.7%. Price-to-book is 6.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CAKE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.8 years, $100 invested in CAKE would have grown to $1999, compared to $2772 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CAKE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CAKE pay a dividend?
Yes. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 191.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-05-01