CAKE
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated Consumer Cyclical - Restaurants Investor Relations →
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) closed at $101.42 as of 2026-07-31, trading 131.4% above its 200-week moving average of $43.84. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 94.9% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 89, CAKE is in overbought territory.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 1719 weeks of data, CAKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought CAKE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +19.6%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, CAKE is a mid-cap stock. The stock trades at 11.0x book value.
Over the past 33 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in CAKE would have grown to $3384, compared to $2889 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.3% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming CAKE as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 46.7% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: CAKE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After CAKE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying CAKE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.6% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +17.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +45.5% vs +38.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment CAKE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices CAKE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where CAKE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $53.77 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $58.22 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $63.48 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $69.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $77.45 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from CAKE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
CAKE has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +19.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 1993 | Sep 1993 | 3 | 3.5% | -6.1% | +3663.8% |
| Mar 1994 | Oct 1994 | 29 | 19.7% | +2.7% | +3528.1% |
| Nov 1994 | Feb 1995 | 16 | 20.4% | +26.0% | +3577.8% |
| Mar 1995 | Mar 1995 | 2 | 7.7% | +54.9% | +3681.4% |
| Oct 1995 | Oct 1995 | 1 | 0.1% | -0.6% | +3364.3% |
| Oct 1996 | Jan 1997 | 14 | 14.7% | +22.6% | +3174.2% |
| Feb 1997 | Feb 1997 | 1 | 0.7% | +54.5% | +3115.4% |
| Mar 1997 | Jun 1997 | 14 | 14.0% | +52.7% | +3115.4% |
| Jul 1997 | Jul 1997 | 1 | 0.3% | +54.0% | +3077.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 4 | 11.8% | +85.9% | +2632.6% |
| Jun 2006 | Dec 2009 | 183 | 79.7% | -3.8% | +380.6% |
| Jul 2017 | Jan 2018 | 26 | 20.6% | +27.4% | +158.6% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 8 | 8.0% | +4.8% | +169.5% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 1.1% | -12.4% | +142.1% |
| Oct 2018 | Apr 2019 | 27 | 14.4% | -19.9% | +141.0% |
| May 2019 | Jan 2021 | 88 | 66.0% | -51.3% | +146.8% |
| Oct 2021 | Nov 2021 | 1 | 3.7% | -9.4% | +179.8% |
| Nov 2021 | Feb 2022 | 13 | 16.5% | -9.8% | +174.0% |
| Feb 2022 | Jan 2023 | 45 | 31.5% | +5.1% | +210.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 19 | 14.5% | +9.5% | +216.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Dec 2023 | 19 | 18.3% | +6.4% | +215.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 9 | 7.0% | +52.2% | +221.5% |
| Mar 2024 | May 2024 | 7 | 6.0% | +44.1% | +207.5% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 3.6% | +81.9% | +201.7% |
| Average | 22 | — | +19.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is CAKE below its 200-week moving average?
No. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated (CAKE) is currently 131.4% above its 200-week moving average of $43.84. It would need to fall to $43.84 to cross below the line.
What is CAKE's 200-week moving average price?
The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $43.84 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when CAKE drops below its 200-week moving average?
CAKE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +19.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is CAKE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about CAKE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 89 (overbought). Price-to-book is 11.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does CAKE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33 years, $100 invested in CAKE would have grown to $3384, compared to $2889 for the S&P 500. That's 11.3% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. CAKE has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does CAKE pay a dividend?
Yes. The Cheesecake Factory Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 118.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31